Super Bowl Matchup Right Now
When you look at the Super Bowl matchup, is important to know the present and the past. Anyone who did their homework and knew their Super Bowl history would have been all over the Denver Broncos to win Super Bowl 50.
The game between the Carolina Panthers and Broncos pitted the NFL's No. 1 offense (the Panthers) against the NFL's No. 1 defense (the Broncos). To the educated bettor, it was no surprise at all that the Broncos would carry the day, because in all three previous Super Bowl matchups of this ilk, defense got the better of offense.
In Super Bowl XIII, the No. 1 defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the best offense of the Dallas Cowboys 35-31. It was the same story in Super Bowl XIX, as the top defense of the San Francisco 49ers throttled the No. 1 offense of the Miami Dolphins 38-16. And in Super Bowl XXV, the NFL's No. 1 offensive team the Buffalo Bills dropped a 20-19 decision to the New York Giants when Scott Norwood's game-ending field goal attempt infamously faded wide right.
How To Make Money On Super Bowl Betting
In 14 Super Bowl games, a favorite has been picked by a double-digit pointspread. On the surface, this might seem like a wise time to go with the underdog and lately, that's proven to be where the smart money goes.
In this instance, four of the last five Super Bowls have seen the underdog deliver a payday. The Green Bay Packers were 14-point favorites over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI and won 35-21, resulting in a push. The last double-digit favorite to cover was the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XXIX, who gave the San Diego Chargers a Super Bowl-record 18.5 points and still won 49-26.
The widest margin offered on a favorite that lost the Super Bowl remains the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. Favored by 18 points over the New York Jets, the Colts lost 16-7.
A high over number would seem to be a logical time for a better to play the under and historically in the Super Bowl, that strategy have proven to be an effective wagering gameplan. In Super Bowls in which the over is listed at 50 points or higher, the under is 6-3, going 4-0 in the last four Super Bowls with a 50-plus over/under number.
You'd also suppose that when the over/under is a low number, betting the over would be the wise way to go but that hasn't been the case. In 15 Super Bowls, the over/under was listed below 40 points, but in those games the under holds an 8-7 advantage, though the over has been the winning best in seven of the last nine Super Bowls of this scenario.
In the world of football betting, Super Bowl XIII is known simply as Black Sunday. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as 4.5 point favorites to defeat the Dallas Cowboys, which led to some serious early action on the Cowboys, dropping the pointspread to 3.5. When the Steelers defeated the Cowboys 35-31, those who'd played the Cowboys as 4.5 underdogs cashed their tickets, as did the later bettors who opted to go with the Steelers when they were just a 3/5 point pick.
In reallity, the pointspread has rarely come into play on Super Bowl Sunday. There's only been six Super Bowls in NFL history where the betting favorites won the game but failed to cover the spread, the last occasion coming in Super Bowl XLIII when the Steelers, a seven-point pick over the Cardinals, only managed a 27-23 victory over Arizona.
New England vs. Atlanta Best Bets
As you're aware, favorites have struggled massively in recent Super Bowls. They have lost seven of the last nine Super Bowls and five in a row. But that trend is going to stop come Super Bowl Sunday. There's something about this New England team. Whether it's because Tom Brady sitll feels like he has something to prove in the aftermath of the Deflategate saga, or because the Patriots have probably never had a more well-rounded team, this team is destined for glory.
They will be the first favorite to win since the Green Bay Packers defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. They probably won't win by much, but Matt Ryan will have to play like Superman for the Falcons to upend the Patriots. New England will win by a field goal, which means that once again the favorite will not cover.
The bookmakers expect a lot of points in Super Bowl LI, as does the majority of the football-watching public. It is the highest over/under line ever in a Super Bowl game. Both teams are prolific offensively. Atlanta's defense is playing their best football when it matters most, but are still sucsceptible to conceding yards, and points.
New England's defense is the stingiest in the league, giving up only 15.6 points per encounter. This is the only factor that could keep the game from going over the 59.5 point line. The Patriots, however, will only be able to slow the league's best offense, not stop them completely. They're just too good.
Atlanta scored a league best 33.8 points per game in the regular season and haven't slowed down at all in the playoffs. They've won six straight, scoring at least 20 points in every one of those games. Most scenarios point towards the over, which is quite staggering if you simply look at the astronomically high line.