Two strategies for surviving

The 2020 Election

With so much uncertainty this year, we have two tactics to help you come out on top, no matter what happens on November 3rd.

The Election In Numbers

Four Possible Scenarios on November 3rd

PICK YOUR STRATEGY!

Politics betting is always an exciting way to place your wagers. With US elections garnering the most excitement worldwide, it is no wonder that the 2020 election has become a betting magnet. These strategies will help you navigate this excitement at any sportsbook. Make sure to use a betting site our team has vetted and recommends.

Hedging

Win even when you lose – protect yourself against loss (on a bet or the outcome of an event) with balancing or compensating transactions.

  1. Let’s say that you are tired of Mr. Trump as the president and would like to see Joe Biden move into the White House.
  2. To soften the blow of a Trump victory, you could bet on him to stay in the White House and receive a profit in case he does.
  1. Trump’s odds are around +110 to win. With a $100 bet, you’ll make a profit of $110 if he wins the election on November 3rd.
  2. Sit back and enjoy the Biden Presidency or head over to the bookie to claim your winnings

Is Trump the favorite to win?

No, Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite of the bookies at the moment. So, you’ll get better odds for Trump.

Trump is so unpopular that the bookies will double your money if he wins again.

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Arbitrage

Win / Win – an arbitrage is a situation where you end up with a profit regardless of future events. If you leverage bonuses, sure profits are waiting for you after November 3rd.

Let’s first see what happens if you bet $100 on both candidates without bonuses:

  1. Biden (-130) wins and you profit $77 minus the $100 staked on Trump = a loss of $23
  1. Trump (+110) wins and you profit $110 minus the $100 staked on Biden = profit of $10

But you can use bonuses to get an edge…

Almost all sportsbooks offer 100% bonuses for Bitcoin users.

If you use $100 to claim one of those, the sportsbook will give you money for the second stake in the election.

  1. Biden (-130) wins and you profit $77 = a profit of $77*

  1. Trump (+110) wins and you profit $110 = a profit of $110*

* In this scenario, you would make one bet with your own money and one with bonus money. Depending on which way you bet, i.e if your own money bet or the bonus money bet is correct, your winnings could be subject to wagering requirements, which typically start from 5x. Read terms & conditions at each sportsbook to make sure that you understand the wagering requirements.

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2020 Election in Numbers

fivethirtyeight.com election simulation spread after 1000s of simulated elections

22 in 100

How many times Trump won in fivethirtyeight.com’s election simulation

12 in 100

How many times Trump won the popular vote in fivethirtyeight.com’s election simulation

<1 in 100

How many times Trump won in a landslide in fivethirtyeight.com’s election simulation

+110

If you bet $100 on Donald Trump, you stand to profit $110 if he wins the election

29

Number of electoral votes from Florida, which has often been decisive in the fight for the White House

38

Number of electoral votes from Texas, which is becoming more competitive due to changing demographics

77 in 100

How many times Biden won in fivethirtyeight.com’s election simulation

88 in 100

How many times Biden won the popular vote in fivethirtyeight.com’s election simulation

30 in 100

How many times Biden won in a landslide in fivethirtyeight.com’s election simulation

-130

If you bet $100 on Joe Biden, you stand to profit $77 if he wins the election

20

Number of electoral votes from Pennsylvania, which Trump won narrowly in 2016. He needs to win there again in 2020.

Vegas is in Nevada

6

Number of electoral votes from Nevada, which Clinton won by only 2% points in 2016.

4 Possible Scenarios in 2020

  1. Déjà Vu of 2016: Not much changes and Trump wins 290 – 248. Michigan is the only state to flip to Biden.
  1. Trump’s Clutch Win: Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin flip, but smaller states secure 270 – 268 victory for Trump.
  1. Biden Keeps Momentum: Momentum from the campaign carries Biden to 290 – 248 victory.
  1. Biden Landslide: Four years of Trump was enough for voters and Biden wins in a landslide 375 – 163.

Data and Predictions Online

Best Bonuses

The best data visualization tool for the 2020 election comes from NYTimes. Drag battleground states to the winner’s side as the votes come in.

fivethirtyeight.com isn’t infallible, but Nate Silver didn’t become one of the Big Guns of election predictions by accident – in 2012, he got all 50 states correct in his presidential election predictions.

Instant Replay of 2016 election night

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