Betting on the NBA All-Star Game is both exciting and difficult. It’s exciting because your wager, whatever it may be, is so darn unique. You only get to bet on a superstar stuffed affair like this once a year. Most of the best players from both the Eastern Conferences and Western Conferences are at the floor once, drumming up intrigue by default, even though the contest in question doesn’t count toward the standings. But it’s also difficult, becase you never know what you’ll see from either side. [-]
That can render wagers on spreads and moneylines almost entirely irrelevant, due to the lack of skill involved in each.
If you’re looking to invest in those spreads in moneylines, the best you can do is monitor injury reports, potential roster additions and substrations, and try to figure which team, the East or West, is more likely to put forth its best effort.
That last part can be a project. You can scour the Internet for injury reports and roster updates, and just judge the dockets by star power and talent alone. That’s easy.
But to quantify effort and interest is something different. It takes researching a player’s experience with the game.
Have they been an All-Star before? If so, how many times have they been one? The more All-Star tilts they’ve played in, the less likely they are to give a damn.
Using this approach, you’re essentially rolling with the younger team–the should be hungrier. And even that’s an imprefect model. But it’s something to go on for a game that, when it comes to spreads and moneylines, doesn’t give you much else with which to work.
Invest in the over for NBA All-Star betting until further notice. Every year, the East and West are combining to score more and more points, without fail, the progression of which is twofold.
First off, the rise of social media has created unprecedented transparency. Highlights go viral seconds after completion. And while being on the wrong end of a dunk or crossover during a regular season game that counts toward the standings is one thing, allowing yourself to become Internet fodder during a friendly battle that has no bearing on your team’s success is another.
Players nowadays are brands unto themselves. And they need to protect those brands any way they can. Getting posterized or crossed up may seem marginal, if wholly harmless, but these stars are so exposed already, the “No such thing as bad presss” thinking doesn’t apply. They want to come across as fun and free and real, but they do not want to be the next cyring Michael Jordan meme. So they will let their opponents dunk and dribble their hearts out without playing much defense, hence the uptick in scoring.
After that, there is the evolution of the three-pointer to consider. Pretty much everyone shoots them these days. Stephen Curry has founded two consecutive MVP campaigns, one of them a unanimous selection, with his outside stroke. So not only are players giving up looks in volume, they’re allowing these accomplished shooters to use up these open looks.
From there, it’s just a matter of math. Three points are more than two points. Ergo the more threes both the East and West hit, the higher their combined score. And the higher their combined score, the more likely they are to eclipse the over.
Unless the NBA experiences a sudden and decisive dip in three-point volume and accurary, the over is where you want to be for every All-Star showcase.