The NFL season is close to its climax and the AFC Championship will be decided in this big clash between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, in the Empower Field at Mile High.
Denver have had a terrific season against all odds and finished top of the AFC division with a terrific 14-3 regular season record, while the Patriots also finished the regular season with a 14-3 record and finished just behind them in the standings.
Both teams have had fantastic campaigns and we will break down the match-up between the sides, as we provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to try and earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
Check out the best NFL playoff betting sites here.
The Patriots had a phenomenal regular season campaign, but things didn’t start particularly well as they fell to defeat in the opening game of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders. The team bounced back with a 33-27 win over the Miami Dolphins before a second defeat came against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, New England found their groove and went on a sensational ten-game winning run after that, which included some top performances, including a 42-13 win over the Carolina Panthers, 31-13 win over the Tennessee Titans, 32-13 win over the Cleveland Browns, and 33-15 win over the New York Giants.
But that momentum was halted after a bye week, as the team returned from their short break to take on the Buffalo Bills and fell to a 31-35 defeat. The patriots closed out the campaign with three consecutive wins, including dominant results against the New York Jets (42-10) and Dolphins (38-10).
That set up Wild Card clash against the Los Angeles Chargers, where New England claimed a comfortable 16-3 win to progress to the divisional championships, where the team earned a 28-16 win over the Houston Texans to claim their first AFC Championship game spot since 2018.
The Broncos had a poor 2024/25 season but have bounced back brilliantly this year, and put together a fantastic 14-3 season to finish as the number one seed in the AFC.
But much like the Patriots, Denver started their season slowly by losing two of their opening three games against the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, despite a victory over the Titans in the first game. But they then found their form and put together their own phenomenal winning run, finding victory in their next 11 games.
In that run, Denver defeated the Philadelphia Eagles (21-17), Dallas Cowboys (44-24), and Kansas City Chiefs (22-19) before a bye-week, before three more wins over the Washington Commanders (27-26 OT), Las Vegas Raiders (24-17), and Green Bay Packers (34-26).
The winning run was brought to an end against the Jacksonville Jaguars, before two more victories to end the campaign. That set up a Divisional championship game against the Bills, where controversy reigned as Denver claimed a 33-30 win in overtime to claim the title, where quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending broken ankle too, in a huge blow to the team.
Check out our review for Bovada sports betting here.
Prior to the news of Nix’s ankle injury, this game was anticipated to be much closer, with Denver set as -1.5 favorites. However, they’re now at +4.5 and it’s hard to see how they don’t taste defeat against New England on the night.
Denver’s pass attack isn’tthe strongest, with an average of 6.4 yards per attempt so far this season ranking them 29th among teams in the NFL in that metric. Nix’s ability to provide a rushing option when plays don’t go to plan is also a big part of their success, and unfortunately for them, Jarrett Stidham simply doesn’t have the same threat.
The Broncos will also likely be without receivers Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin due to concussion and hamstring trouble respectively, despite having an extra day of rest to recover, and that will only affect their chances even more.
The Patriots are likely to be at near full-strength, and there isn’t much between the teams all season, so that should be enough to give them the edge. They’re averaging 28.8 points scored per game this season, ranking second in the NFL only behind the Rams, and it’s difficult to see the Broncos outscoring them when they’re not at 100%.
Whether they cover the aforementioned spread remains to be seen, but there is good value at -245 for New England to claim the win on the moneyline, and that is our pick for this game.
Check out our review for BetOnline sports betting here.
About the Author
Daniel is a football writer who has a great thirst for the Premier League and other major European leagues. A lover of the beautiful game and a firm believer that the eye test is better than statistics. Also an avid MMA fan.
Read Daniel's ProfileAsk Daniel about this guide:
