Brazil start their 2022 World Cup campaign against Serbia on Thursday, and here we look at their Group G match in our Brazil vs Serbia 2022 World Cup betting picks.
Brazil have steadily become the favorites to win the competition with the best world cup betting sites. This is because a quick look at their squad shows it is simply brimming with talent in every position.
The sportsbooks now make Brazil just +350 to win the tournament. They’ve been getting shorter and shorter the closer we get to the competition. This is down to a couple of reasons. First, as we already mentioned, their immense talent in every position. Second, the failings of the top European nations in recent months, such as the defending champions France.
But as generations of soccer fans know only too well, with talent and belief, comes expectation. And look at how badly Neymar and company handled the expectation back in 2014? Anybody remember their semi-final against Germany?
So, can this current generation of Brazilians handle the pressure better than their predecessors of eight years ago? Well, going in their favor is the fact that this is a far better squad of players. So when they kick off against Serbia on Thursday, it’s fair to say they should be going into the competition with plenty of confidence.
The match is to be played at Qatar’s Lusail Stadium, the second of the ten matches to be held at this venue. With a capacity of 80,000, this is the biggest venue in the competition, and where the final will be played.
The kick-off time of 2 pm ET is favorable, and it is the second match from Group G, with the other two nations in the group, Switzerland and Cameroon meeting earlier in the day, at the unsociable hour of 5 am ET.
From the perspective of Serbia, it could be a case of damage limitation. If Brazil sweep through the group, as expected, it will be out of Serbia and the higher ranked Switzerland to see who joins them in the Round of 16. Although, Cameroon shouldn’t be written off.
Regardless, Serbia will probably target Switzerland and Cameroon for their points. This is borne out in the FIFA rankings, which show Brazil are ranked 1, Switzerland 15, Serbia 21, and Cameroon 43.
In Group G betting, the best soccer betting sites make Brazil -275 to win the group, and -900 to qualify. Switzerland are next at +450 to win the group, and +100 to qualify.
Then comes Serbia. Dragan Stojković’s team are +600 to win the group, and +110 to make it through to the Round of 16. As for Cameroon, they are +2000 to top Group G, and +350 to make it to the next stage. These odds are taken from Bovada. You can read more about them in our Bovada sportsbook review.
These two teams have met twice before with Brazil winning on both occasions. In 2014, Brazil won an international friendly held in Sao Paulo 1-0, thanks to a goal from Fred. Then in the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Brazil won 2-0 in the group stages, thanks to goals from Paulinho, and Thiago Silva.
Getting here was a relatively routine affair for Brazil. They topped their CONMEBOL qualifying group with 45 points from 17 matches. That saw them finish 6 points ahead of second place Argentina, and 21 points ahead of fifth place Peru (the top four automatically qualified).
As for Serbia, they qualified by topping Group A in the UEFA qualifying process. The Serbs finished on 20 points from eight matches, beating Ronaldo’s Portugal side into second place. It wasn’t the most difficult group overall though, with only Serbia and Portugal ever in the fight for the top two positions.
Right, in the betting to win the match, Brazil are obviously the favorites. They are -225 on the moneyline, and starting from -1 goal, they are -135 on the handicap.
Serbia are +685 on the moneyline, and they are +115 to win with a +1 goal start on the handicap. For the record, the draw on the moneyline is +375.
In the total goals market, over 2.5 goals is -130, while under 2.5 goals is +110.
This feels like it’s a case of Brazil is going to win, but where is the best value bet? And I actually don’t think that -225 on the moneyline for a Brazil win is a bad bet. Starting from -1 (meaning Brazil need to win by a minimum of two goals), Brazil are -135, which also isn’t a bad bet.
So with the better odds in mind, I’m making Brazil to win on the handicap at -135 my betting pick on this match.