Argentina and Mexico are both in desperate need of a win in their Group C fixture this Saturday. Here we look ahead to the match and give our verdict in our Argentina vs Mexico World Cup betting picks.
Both sides got their campaigns off to disappointing starts on Tuesday, especially Argentina, who were the pre tournament second favorites. Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina side were 36 matches unbeaten going into their opening match against Saudi Arabia. So to lose 2-1 against the minnows was a massive blow.
As for the Mexicans, even though their 0-0 draw with Poland was disappointing, they are still in with a chance to qualify from Group C. Losing to the Poles would have virtually put them out after one match.
Mexico can take heart from their opening match though. It wasn’t a classic, but Gerardo Martino’s side had the majority of the possession, and were more than a match for the Poles. They did have to survive a Robert Lewandowski penalty miss to get their point though.
But in world cups, you need luck. And the Mexicans certainly had some in their opening fixture.
Tuesday’s results have certainly opened up the group from a betting perspective. Argentina is now -225 to qualify for the Round of 16, and are +145 to win the group. That still makes them favorites in both markets with the best soccer betting sites.
As for the rest; In group winner betting, Mexico are +300, Saudi Arabia +333, and Poland are +350. While in betting to qualify for the last 16, Mexico and Saudi Arabia are both +100, with Poland +120.
It’s basically a wide open market, with all four teams in with a chance. Argentina retains their favorites tag, basically, because it’s Argentina. The above odds are provided by Bovada. You can read more about their latest betting offers at our Bovada sportsbook review.
Lionel Messi and his Argentina side started the competition as second favorites behind Brazil at around +525. Since their defeat to Saudi Arabia, they have now drifted to fourth in the betting, at +825. That puts them behind Brazil (+320), France (+675), and England (+725).
This says that Saturday’s fixture against Mexico is a must win. If they lose this they are almost certainly out, a draw, and it’s going to be extremely difficult, as they will be relying on the other team’s results.
The match is being played at the Lusail Stadium, the venue for the world cup final, so there is some incentive there for a team who are expecting to be in the running to lift the trophy.
No surprise, Messi and his teammates are favorites to win the match. On the moneyline, Argentina is -173, Mexico are +570, and the draw is +305.
|Argentina vs Mexico; 2022 World Cup Betting Odds|
On the handicap line, the best world cup betting sites are giving Mexico a one goal head start. Argentina -1 is +100, Mexico +1 is -120. In total goals, over 2.5 goals is +100, under is -135.
The teams have met 35 times in the past. Argentina has won 16, there have been 14 draws, and Mexico has won five.
The last meeting at a world cup was in 2010, where Argentina won 3-1. In their last three matches (all friendlies), Argentina has won 2-0, 2-0, and 4-0. The most recent, the 4-0, was in 2019.
The last time Mexico beat the current Copa America champions was in 2004, in that year’s Copa America. Mexico hasn’t beaten Argentina in their last ten matches, losing eight, and drawing two. It all points towards a win for Argentina.
Although Mexico had the majority of the possession against Poland, the analysis from the Tweet below tells its own story. Had Lewandowski scored that penalty, would the Mexicans have found a way back into the match? The stats suggest they probably wouldn’t have.
I can’t see Argentina not scoring, and this is where the Meixcans will fall short. I’m not sure if it will be 1-0, or 2-0, but either way, I can only see a win for Argentina here. Yes, they were disappointing against Saudi Arabia, but they still created a lot of chances, and on another day, they take at least one of those opportunities.
I’m going for Lionel Scaloni’s team to win this. I’m not backing them at -173 on the moneyline, I’m going to take them to win this by two clear goals, so I’m going for Argentina (-1) to win on the handicap at +100 for my betting pick.