UFC 268 Picks: Usman The Man?

By G. De Luca
Usman Covington 2
Usman-Covington 2 is set to take place next Saturday as the main event for UFC 268 from Madison Square Garden.

New York City’s Madison Square Garden is where the next UFC fight night will take place in early November. With two title bouts happening on the main fight card, this should be quite an intriguing pay-per-view. This includes a rematch of the Usman-Covington bout as the main event next Saturday night.

UFC 268 Odds -- Main CardMyBookieBetOnlineBovada
Colby Covington+255+257+250
Kamaru Usman-315-307-325
Zhang Weili-120-120-115
Rose Namajunas-110+100-105
Frankie Edgar+140+148+140
Marlon Vera-170-173-170

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Part Two

Both of these fighters feel like they won the first fight. Usman has been fighting in UFC and a variety of outlets since 2012. The amazing part when it comes to UFC is that Usman carries an 18 fight winning streak into this bout. It is partly why this UFC 268 PPV is so hyped. Kamaru Usman is a force in the UFC Welterweight Division. His second fight against Colby Covington expects to be full of fireworks.

Usman once again is a strong favorite. Usman’s range came in around -280 to -300 in the odds. Now, Covington came in between +235 and +250. There are some that think the odds could shorten a little before next Saturday’s fight.

Basically, this is going to be some fight that will test both combatants again. The argument from Covington is he feels ready to avenge the first fight. Covington even suggested that Usman may have been ducking him and that is why this bout took so long to come to fruition. That seems a bit far-fetched.

This will be one of the more fascinating clashes to handicap on the main card. Why is that? For one, these two fighters genuinely hate each other. For two, Covington believes the odds should be much closer and that he can win this fight and take down Usman. The American may have indeed had a shot but ultimately Usman is the one that is favored for a reason.

The last meeting between Usman and Covington

It is incredible to think that these two fighters met just short of two years ago. Usman ultimately won by knockout in what was a spirited affair to say the least. Usman scored the only knockdown earlier in the fight. Now, Covington had his moments. Here is some excellent footage of this fight.

Again, the fact that Usman varied his attack proved to pay dividends at the end of this fight. What people forget is that Usman attacked the American’s body 30% of the time. Covington only countered to Usman’s body 19%. Also, the defending champion “Nigerian Nightmare” landed 50% or more of his significant strikes from Round 3 to the 4:10 mark of Round 5, where the fight ended. Covington’s percentages dipped to 15% at one point in Round 3.

As long as we can get Usman lower than -250, he is our pick to win this UFC 268 PPV main event over Covington.

Take Kamaru Usman (-285) to win this UFC Welterweight Championship bout for a second time over Covington.

Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili

The main event for women’s UFC is one featuring Rose Namajunas who is quite the fighter in her own right going up against Zhang Weili. This fight will be the co-headliner. Namajunas comes in ranked #3 among all women’s fighters when it comes to pound-for-pound rankings. The American is quite dangerous and beat Joanna Jedrezjczyk twice and once by knockout to boot.

Zhang Weili can strike very quickly and comes in where she dominated the kickboxing scene in China. There were numerous attempts for Weili to come over to the United States. Visa issues would get in the way often. Finally, in 2020, she came over to fight Joanna Jedrezjczyk and what transpired may have been the best women’s fight in UFC history. Weili prevailed in a split decision where both fighters were on the brink of victory.

Oh, so Namajunas and Weili have fought before? Here it is. Trust us, it was quick.

Weili came into this first fight as a -200 favorite over Namajunas. This second fight, just about six months later is now about dead even. Because the first fight ended so abruptly with that incredible head kick, no one knows what to expect. Namajunas is such a fighter and has taken a ton in and out of the ring compared to Weili.

In this case, we recommend betting on Namajunas again (-115).

Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera

This one is just going to be a fight that no one has a clue on. Frankie Edgar and Marlon Vera should provide a good deal of entertainment value.

Now, there is one equalizer in all of this and that is the variety. Both fights can win on the ground or via knockout from kicks or punches. Edgar has seven knockouts and four submission wins. Vera has six knockouts and eight submission victories.

With the Ecuadorian raring to go for this one, the expectation is that he should defeat Edgar by decision next month at least. Throw the records out the window and even the rankings (Edgar -8, Vera 13). His punches usually end most fights and that is possible here too. Edgar’s disadvantage is that this is only his third Bantamweight bout. Our pick is Marlon Vera at -160.

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