UFC 249: Value To Be Had Betting on Justin Gaethje

By Austin Miller - Updated July 23, 2020

UFC 249 was set to take place on April 18 but was postponed due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. Were not sure whats changed but UFC 249 is now taking place in Jacksonville, Florida on May 9th with a full, action-packed schedule.

Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethjes UFC Lightweight title fight is the headline bout and we think Gaethje has what it takes to cause a major upset despite being an underdog with sports betting giants Bovada.

Will Gaethje Cause An Upset Against Ferguson?

Tony Ferguson was set to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov in this Main Event back in mid-April but Nurmagomedov is stuck in his native Russia, unable to fly due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Ferguson was originally a +220 underdog for that fight, but the change of opponent has flipped those UFC 249 betting odds to see him become a -190 favorite.

Ferguson is a real handful of a fighter despite now being the tender age of 36-years-old. The California native hasnt lost a UFC fight since a unanimous decision defeat against Michael Johnson back in May 2012. Hes won his last 12 fights in a row with five fights crowned Fight fo the Night and three selected for Performance of the Night.

Ferguson is a fearless fighter who is willing to accept damage so he can deliver blows of his own. He continually stalks his opponents as not to give them time to breathe, mixing his attacks to keep opponents on their toes.

Despite this, Ferguson lacks the one-punch power of some fighters, including Gaethje, and that could be the difference in this fight. Ferguson needs to use his superior floor game to stop the immense power of Gaethje. If he does this he should win the fight, but Gaethje has dynamite in his attacks and thats worrisome for Ferguson.

Arizonas Gaethje is on a three-fight winning streak after suffering back-to-back defeats, his only losses to date. Gaethje was knocked out by Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218 and then lost to TKO in his fight with Dustin Poirier, an opponent who Ferguson also defeated last time out.

Gaethjes professional MMA career has seen him win 21 of his 23 matches, 18 of those by knockout. That power is what could see Gaethje win this fight. Anyone who has the ability to knock a man out with one strike always has a chance in any fighting sport. The +150 available with Bovada looks like great value when you consider Gaethje has the ability to send Ferguson to the canvas at any point in the fight.

Best UFC 249 Bets To Make

Sportsbooks make Ferguson a substantial favorite and rightly so because he is the champion at the end of the day. Hes also on a 12-match winning streak and those dont come easy.

Ferguson is priced at +225 to win by KO, TKO, or DQ but we just cant see him being able to end this fight with a stoppage.

Gaethje, on the other hand, is +160 to win by the same method and that is a huge value in our opinion. Couple a Gaethje victory (+155) with him winning by these methods (+160) and youve got yourself a nice little earner.

There is no way this fight goes the distance because both fighters are too explosive. Bovada prices the fight going the distance at +325 compared to -550 of it ending before then. Wed plum for the fight not starting Round 3 at -210, our actual prediction is a Gaethje knockout in Round 2

Parlay Gaethje and Cejudo For Big Wins

Henry Cejudo takes on Dominik Cruz in the UFC Welterweight title fight at UFC 249 and everything points towards Cejudo winning this fight with relative ease. Cejudo is a -235 favorite compared to Cru on +185.

One bet to completely avoid is either fighter winning by submission. Cejudo is +775 to win by submission while Cruz is available at +1000. Bother fighters combined records have seen them only win once by submission in a combined 41 fights. Likewise, theyve only lost once by submission between them in 41 fights.

If Cejudo cant get the job done inside five rounds, he should win by decision. The fight to go the distance is -205 and a Cejudo win by decision is +130. We like the look of both those bets.

Making a parlay bet of $100 on a Gaethje – Cejudo victory returns $263.51, which would be fantastic. Our five-fight parlay for UFC 248 almost came in and only a decision cost us a +770 win!

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