NBA Picks; Points the safer bet with patchy pre season form

Updated December 2, 2022
Updated December 2, 2022By Dean Etheridge
Nba Picks; Points The Safer Bet With Patchy Pre Season Form

The new NBA season is still less than a couple of weeks old, but already the Conference tables are beginning to take shape, giving us a bit of early season form to go by. Thursday night sees three of the pre-season betting front runners in action, and they make up the basis of our latest free NBA betting picks.

Before we get to our NBA picks, let’s have a recap of the early season and how it has affected the odds with the best betting sites to win the 2023 NBA finals.

Warriors lose favorites tag after poor start

The Golden State Warriors started the season as the favorites, although they have now lost that tag to the Boston Celtics. The Celtics were the favorites in the early summer. But after a realignment of the market, the Warriors went back to the top of the betting just ahead of the new season. And that remained the case even after the Draymond Green incident with Jordan Poole.

Despite that incident seemingly being smoothed over, the Warrior’s start to the season hasn’t been the best. This has seen them drift out to +600 to be 2023 NBA Championship winners. The Celtics are now into +575.

The early front runners this season are the Bucks and the Celtics in the Eastern Conference, and the Jazz and the Trail Blazers in the Western. Of those four, only the Celtics and the Bucks feature in the betting to be 2023 NBA champions. The latest NBA betting from BetOnline and Bovada is below. The above odds are taken from BetOnline. You can check out our BetOnline sportsbook review for more great betting offers from this bookmaker.

2023 NBA Championship Winner BettingBetOnlineBovada
Boston Celtics+575+550
Golden State Warriors+600+635
LA Clippers+700+700
Milwaukee Bucks+750+750
Brooklyn Nets+850+800
Phoenix Suns+1200+1100
Denver Nuggets+1400+1400
Philadelphia 76ers+1600+1600
Miami Heat+2000+1600
Dallas Mavericks+2200+2000
Memphis Grizzlies+2200+2500
New Orleans Pelicans+2500+2500

Now, let’s take a look at the next round of fixtures and make our NBA betting picks

Nets v Mavericks

The Nets haven’t started the season well, winning one and losing three. They face a Mavericks team who have won one and lost two, and sit 11th in the Western Conference. 

The Nets were soundly beaten 110-99 by the Bucks in their previous outing last night.

While in their last fixture, Dallas lost a close game 113-111 to the Pelicans on Tuesday. On the Moneyline, BetUS have the Mavericks as -120 favorites, with the Nets at -110.

The handicap spread sees Dallas from -1.5 points at -110, with the Nets at -110 with a 1.5 points start. It’s a tight match to call for a winner, so I’m going to go with under 227.5 points at -110 for my betting pick

Under 227.5 Total PointsBrooklyn Nets v Dallas Mavericks
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Thunder v Clippers

Oklahoma has one win and three defeats so far this season. But last time out they impressively beat the Clippers 108-94. That defeat was the Clippers second loss in a row, and so far they are 2-2 this season.

The best NBA betting sites are opposing the Thunder doubling up on the Clippers. On the Moneyline Oklahoma is +230, and they are -110 with a +7 start on the handicap. For the Clippers, they are -280 on the Moneyline, and -110 on the handicap from a -7 start.

If the Clippers are to win, they aren’t great value on the Moneyline, especially after losing so heavily to the same opponents on Tuesday. The total points spread is set at 215.5, and in all three of the Thunder’s defeats that has been smashed

I’m thinking the Clippers will respond here, but I’m leaning towards overs on the points, rather than them on the handicap. So my betting pick is over 215.5 on the total points spread.

Over 215.5 Total PointsOklahoma Thunder v Los Angeles Clippers
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Warriors v Heat

Steve Kerr’s Golden State team had a disruptive preseason, and it’s fair to say their start to the regular season hasn’t been much better.

Two wins and two defeats isn’t what the defending NBA champions would have expected from their opening four matches. Golden State started the season with a routine over the Lakers, which isn’t any great achievement given their form. 

They followed that up with a 128-123 defeat to the Nuggets. Next was a five points win over the Kings, and then a 134-105 hammering from the Phoenix Suns. 

The defeat to the Suns was a shocker. Klay Thomson’s ejection (the first of his 796 career) was the headline maker, but the Warriors were already well behind at this stage.

As for the Heat, they’ve won two and lost three. One of the defeats came to the Celtics (111-104). They’ve also lost to the Bulls, and they have both beaten and lost to the Raptors. In their most recent match (last night), they impressively beat the Trail Blazers 119-98 in Portland.

Miami are -110 with a +7.5 points start on the handicap. From -7.5, the Warriors are also -110. The total points spread is set at 225.5, with both over and under at -110

All the Heat’s matches have been under 225 points, while all the Warriors matches have been over the total. And not just over, well over! Therefore, with the Warriors form all over the place at the moment, I feel over 225.5 points has to be the best betting pick here.

Over 225.5 Total PointsGolden State Warriors v Miami Heat
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NBA Warriors v Heat
Chase Center,San Francisco,California 
Starting on
October 27, 2022
Ending on
October 27, 2022

About the Author

Dean Etheridge
Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge has over ten years of writing experience in the world of sports betting. Starting out as a hobby on his own soccer betting website, Dean has now seen his picks published across various affiliate sites along with The Sun and TalkSPORT where he writes regular Premier League and Champions League betting tips. Combining his extensive knowledge and experience with his British humor and wit, Dean has developed into a trusted voice within the sports betting industry. Although Dean's preferred areas of focus are the English Premier League and cricket, his extensive sports knowledge enables him to tackle nearly any sport. Gone are the days of traveling the world to witness events like FIFA World Cups and Ashes cricket, as Dean now prefers the comfort of his own home while enjoying sports.

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