The NFL returns for week 5 of the season with the San Francisco 49ers playing host to the Dallas Cowboys at the Levi’s Stadium in the Sunday Night Football.
The 49ers have started the season with a perfect 4-0 record and have shone, while the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-1 record and looking as strong as ever.
We’ll take a look at the game and provide you with the best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action from your couch.
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San Francisco have had an electric start to the season so far, winning all four of their games to date by a comfortable margin.
They opened up against the Pittsburgh Steelers and waltzed to a 30-7 victory, winning three of the four quarters comfortably and only conceding points in the second quarter.
That was followed up when they took on the Los Angeles Rams in week 2, where a slow first half saw them fall behind and have to come back to claim a 30-23 win. Week 3 saw another dominant performance, this time against the New York Giants with a 30-12 win which saw them score heavily in the second and fourth quarters.
Week 4 saw them clash with the Arizona Cardinals and once again hit 30+ points as they smashed them 35-16 to continue their perfect, high-scoring start.
As for Dallas they opened their season with a flawless 40-0 win over the New York Giants, finding themselves 26-0 up at half-time and taking their foot off the gas for the second half.
Week 2 was another dominant showing as they beat the New York Jets 30-10, with a defensive masterclass which saw them only concede in the second-quarter of the game.
They followed that with a clash against the Cardinals where they couldn’t get their offensive or defensive game going and fell to a 28-16 defeat on the road, before bouncing back last week with a huge 38-3 win over the New England Patriots as they kept a clean sheet in three of the four quarters once again.
There is a clear advantage for the 49ers in this game and while it would obviously be better if the spread was just -3, they should still be able to get the win by four or more points in this game.
Dallas leads the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin, but the 49ers aren’t likely to beat themselves since they only have one turnover this season. Punting against the Cowboys is a not-bad outcome, and Brock Purdy hasn’t had an interception yet this season.
The 49ers have covered four-plus in each of their two playoff wins over the Cowboys, despite the close, hard-fought nature of each game. If you think San Francisco will win, taking it to cover -3.5 is the play.
The way they’ve performed this season too means they have such a strong offense that once they find a way to open the scoring, they’ll likely rinse and repeat it and get more joy and points on the board.
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The 49ers have put up at least 30 points in each of their first four games, but it’s hard to see them doing so against the Cowboys defense, even with Trevon Diggs out for the season.
With that said, Dallas has not managed to score more than 17 points against San Francisco in either meeting over the past two seasons. Plus, for all of their glaring offensive numbers, the Cowboys rank 30th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage (36.8) with just seven touchdowns in 19 attempts.
The Cowboys can’t afford to kick field goals against the 49ers. But at the same time their red-zone woes seem more than likely to continue against a San Francisco defense which is averaging 14.5 points conceded per game this season.
I think San Francisco will make a few more plays and hold off Dallas in an extremely entertaining game, and in the process that should see the points total stay relatively low.
The defenses are too good for this to be a high-scoring game, even though each offense has posted excellent numbers this season for the most part.
In the previous two meetings the total has not surpassed 40 points. The chances of it hitting 45 are even slimmer and it makes this a great value bet.
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About the Author
A soccer and MMA fanatic who believes the eye test far outweighs statistics, apart from when it comes to betting. With experience writing for several years, Daniel is an avid sports fan but also enjoys obstacle courses, music and views from a height.
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