The UFC ends a long break between events on Saturday, January 24, when it presents the UFC 324 fight card from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event is the first of the fight promotion’s seven-year deal with Paramount+, which marks the end of the UFC’s pay-per-view programming for numbered fight cards. The UFC 324 fight card, which features an interim UFC lightweight title fight as the main event, streams exclusively on Paramount+. The main card also begins one hour earlier than previous numbered cards, starting at 9:00 p.m. ET.
With UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria dealing with personal issues, the UFC has decided to crown an interim champion in its 155-pound division. That title will be up for grabs at UFC 324 when former interim titleholder Justin Gaethje faces Paddy Pimblett in the main event of UFC 324.
Justin Gaethje (26-5) is a fearless fighter with 14 fight-night bonuses to his name in 14 UFC fights. Gaethje is an iron-chinned scrapper with some of the best leg kicks in the game. Over the past few years, the 37-year-old has morphed from a brawler into a more mature and measured fighter. Gone are the days of Gaethje standing in the center of the cage and winging punches. Yes, the ex-interim UFC champ can summon that part of himself if the fight requires it, but he is calmer these days, and tends to use his striking to create openings rather than using brute force and high output. The former BMF champ has also improved his footwork, making him a more elusive fighter.
Gaethje ranks fifth among active UFC lightweights in significant strikes landed per minute with 6.59. His striking accuracy is the second-best in the division at 58.8 percent. However, Gaethje gets hit a lot, absorbing 7.18 significant strikes per minute with a defensive rate of 51 percent. Despite the number of strikes he absorbs, Gaethje has only been knocked down three times in his UFC career. Gaethje averages 0.10 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown success rate of 14 percent. Gaethje’s takedown defense is 68 percent, and he has yet to have a submission victory under the UFC banner.
Gaethje has 20 career knockout victories.
When Paddy Pimblett debuted with the UFC there was a lot of hype behind the rising English fighter. Although he has not lost during his UFC run, the 31-year-old has lost some of his shine. One of the reasons fans and pundits aren’t as high on Pimblett as they once were is that he has not outgrown his bad habit of fighting with his chin high and his hands low. Pimblett is a talented fighter who can compete on the feet and the mat, but his upside is lower than it once was. With that being said, Pimblett looked very good in his past two fights, winning “Performance of the Night” bonuses for stoppage wins over Bobby Green and Michael Chandler. The UFC obviously is very high on Pimblett.
Pimblett is a better grappler than he is a striker, but he tends to strike more than he grapples. He needs to be defensively aware in both of those respects against a threat like Gaethje. Pimblett lands 5.19 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 53 percent. He absorbs 3.14 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 42 percent. Pimblett’s takedown accuracy is 28 percent, and he lands 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 50 percent. He averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes of UFC action.
Paddy Pimblett has been the recipient of favorable matchmaking during his rise up the UFC lightweight rankings. He has been matched up against aging opponents who have fought in many MMA wars. That does not change at UFC 324. Justin Gaethje is a game opponent, but he’s not the knockout threat he once was, and he was knocked out cold by Max Holloway in 2024.
The betting odds for this fight seem off. They should be closer. With the odds being what they are, a Gaethje pick to win is not out of line. If Gaethje wins, it is likely to come via knockout in the first three rounds. If Pimblett can survive the striking onslaught and get Gaethje into the championship rounds, look for him to take advantage of a tired opponent and pick up a late submission victory at UFC 324.
With Gaethje not having the one-punch stopping power he had earlier in his career. The betting pick is Paddy Pimblett to beat Justin Gaethje by submission.
Once you have settled on the wagers you will be making with each of your UFC 324 bets, you’ll want to be sure to have a look at the massive amounts of data available to you only at SBS. For more insightful analysis into all of the bouts on the card covered here, be certain to have a look at the UFC betting sites guide. These guides are providing the latest assessments for all of the betting lines the oddsmakers are setting on the sport. This information will aid you in assembling some solid UFC 324 picks.
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