NFL Picks Thanksgiving Day – Dallas Cowboys favorites to beat New York Giants

Updated December 23, 2022
Updated December 23, 2022By Daniel Feliciano
NFL Picks Thanksgiving Day - Dallas Cowboys favorites to beat New York Giants

A wonderful NFL season continues into week 12 this week as we prepare for our traditional Thanksgiving Day games between some excellent teams.

In a highly entertaining season so far, this week we’ll look at three games involving the Dallas Cowboys taking on the New York Giants, the Buffalo Bills game with the Detroit Lions and the New England Patriots clash with the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.

We’ll break down both exciting match ups, give you our best free NFL picks, and see if we can earn you some extra cash for the end of the weekend.

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Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions – 11/24, 12:30pm ET

The Bills moved to 7-3 last week when they comfortably beat the Cleveland Browns 31-23, recovering from an overtime loss the previous weekend against the Vikings.

Detroit on the other hand moved to 4-6 last weekend when they claimed a big 31-18 win over the New York Giants to make it three wins in a row since falling to 1-6 against the Miami Dolphins back in October.

Back the overs

When it comes to betting on the Lions at home, the safest play has been taking the overs as shown by the fact it is 7-3 in 10 Lions games this season and is also 4-1 at home.

We know what the Lions can do well and what they don’t do well. While the Lions can run the football brilliantly, their defense is as suspect as it gets.

Bills offense that is scoring 28.1 points per game, second-best in the NFL, should be able to put them on the back foot for large parts. For context, the Lions’ defense is allowing 28.2 points per game, which is ranked the worst in the league.

The question when attacking this total is if the Lions’ offense will do its part. While the Lions have the eighth-best scoring offense at 25 points per game, the Bills have the fourth-best scoring defense at 17.4 ppg.

However, the Bills have given up 20-plus points in three straight games, including games with 23 and 33 points conceded, which bodes well for the Lions moving the football and that makes this a good value bet.

NFL picks – Over 53 points @ -110

Over 53 pointsBuffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions
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New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings – 11/24, 8:20pm ET

New England moved to 6-4 with their most recent win in a largely uneventful clash against the New York Jets, winning 10-3 last weekend.

That’s three wins in a row now and four wins in their last five, with the only defeat in that run coming against the Chicago Bears.

The Vikings have been magnificent so far this season, going 8-2 with a dominant run and some impressive performances to boot.

Their first defeat came against Phildaelphia Eagles in week 2, and since then they have won against all of Detroit LionsNew Orleans SaintsChicago BearsMiami DolphinsSt Louis Cardinals, Washington and Buffalo.

Last weekend though they were thumped 40-3 by the Cowboys and now must look to bounce back.

Patriots to cover the spread

The bookmakers are suggesting that these teams are closer than their record suggests, and that is a direct result of how well Bill Belichick has his team playing on both sides of the ball.

Although the New England offense has had trouble this season, the Patriots are winning behind a Belichick defense that finds ways to get the job done when it matters the most.

The Vikings are a team that wins close games after trailing for most of the contest, finding a way to get ahead and steal a victory. As a result, the Vikings are 4-5-1 ATS this season while the Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games, covering in three straight. The Pats are also 5-1 outright in their past six overall.

The Patriots have defeated teams they should be winning against during their run, meanwhile the Vikings will be their greatest test since the Ravens in September.

If the Patriots can get to Kirk Cousins like the Cowboys did last week, it won’t take much for New England to keep this game close enough to cover or even win it outright.

NFL picks – New England Patriots +3 @ -110

New England Patriots +3vs Minnesota Vikings
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New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys – 11/24, 4:30pm ET

NFL Thanksgiving DayBetOnlineBetUSMyBookie
New York Giants+315+320+280
Dallas Cowboys-385-400-360

The Giants have had a solid season so far, and moved to 7-3 last weekend when they suffered defeat at home to the Detroit Lions.

Prior to that they had won five of their previous six games, with their most recent win coming 24-16 over the Houston Texans.

Dallas have had an excellent season so far going 7-3, winning three of their last four games with extremely comfortable wins over the Lions (24-6) and Bears (49-29) and Vikings (40-3).

Their defeats this season came on the opening day against Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19-3) in a poor showing, before the Philadelphia Eagles claimed a 26-17 win in an impressive showing. Last week they were poor though, losing 31-28 to the Packers.

Cowboys cover the spread

While the Cowboys are as healthy as an NFL team can be in late December, the Giants did not leave Week 11’s loss unscathed. Both cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson suffered knee injuries and are likely to miss this game.

While Jackson will return later this season, Robinson is done for the year. Both are significant losses for the Giants on both sides of the ball and will give the Cowboys even greater hope of a result.

In the past three games, the Giants are 1-2 ATS while the Cowboys are 3-1 in their past four and 7-3 on the season overall. On top of that, the Cowboys are also 4-0 ATS in their past four home games while the Giants are 0-4 ATS in their past four games facing NFC East foes.

Being 9-2 ATS in the past 11 games against the Giants, the Cowboys should cover this spread comfortably.

NFL picks – Cowboys -9 @ -110

Dallas Cowboys -9vs New York Giants
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About the Author

Daniel Feliciano
Daniel Feliciano

A soccer and MMA fanatic who believes the eye test far outweighs statistics, apart from when it comes to betting. With experience writing for several years, Daniel is an avid sports fan but also enjoys obstacle courses, music and views from a height.

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