A wonderful NFL season has finally hit the business end as we hit the Conference finals of the playoffs for the 2022/23 campaign and the final four teams.
With a place in the Super Bowl LVII up for grabs we will see the San Francisco 49ers take on the Philadelphia Eagles while the Cincinnati Bengals will also take on Kansas City Chiefs.
We’ll look both games across Sunday and break down the exciting match-ups to give you our best free NFL picks, and see if we can earn you some extra cash for the end of the weekend.
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The 49ers have had a terrific season up to this point and made it to the post-season by going 13-4 in the regular season.
They then claimed wins over the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card round with a heavy 41-23 score, before turning in a brilliant performance to see off the Dallas Cowboys 19-12 last week in the divisional round.
Those two wins have now seen them move on to an incredible 12-game winning streak, which is the best across the entire NFL.
As for the Eagles, they racked up the best record in the NFL regular season when they went 14-3, something only matched by the Chiefs.
Prior to losing two of their final three regular season games against the Cowboys and New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia were 13-1 and cruising.
That gave them a bye past the Wild Card round and an extra week of rest, which they cashed in to destroy the New York Giants 38-7 last weekend.
The 49ers are likely to run the ball at a high rate in this game, taking the pressure off their rookie quarterback as he deals with the top pass defense in the NFL. That bodes well for the Under, as it could result in longer drives.
I don’t envision this game turning into a shootout with how good the 49ers defense has played, and each of the last three Eagles games would have cashed on this total.
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Usually when a team is -2.5 on the spread it’s a sure fire reason to back them, because they only need to win by a field goal for your bet to cash.
But with the 49ers having an elite defense and running game, this seems like the perfect sort of game to make an exception and go with the moneyline.
There’s a chance that this game is decided on a last-minute field goal, because both teams are absolutely flying with confidence and will feel they are going to win the Super Bowl this year, never mind this game.
If you’re feeling extra brave then take the spread, because playing at home in such a big game with the support of the crowd behind them will likely be enough to get them over the line in a close game.
But for the purposes of my NFL pick for this game, the moneyline is the safer bet and provides good value too.
The Bengals have gone under the radar with a really good season in 2022/23, with Cincinnati going 12-4 in the regular season.
After beating Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card and then Buffalo Bills last weekend, they’re now on a 10-game win streak and will be confident of beating a Chiefs side likely to be without Patrick Mahomes.
That’s because the quarterback limped off in the win over Jacksonville Jaguars last week, which took their overall record for the season to 15-3 and take their winning streak to six in a row.
This may seem like a long shot since the last five meetings between these two teams have hit the 50 and 60 point marks. But both defenses have avenues to success in this match, with the injuries to Mahomes and the Cincinnati offense providing the perfect platform for stops.
The Bengals have done well to take away the big play in their recent matchups with the Chiefs, so Kansas City should require some lengthy drives to put up points.
That also should be the case for the Bengals if, as I expect, Burrow faces more pressure than he did in the Divisional Round.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams run the ball more in an effort to mitigate some of these concerns, which will help keep the clock moving and see this bet come in, but it’ll be nervy towards the end.
It’s hard to watch what the Bengals did to the Bills on Sunday and not think it’s possible to be replicated.
Cincinnati’s defense continues to play at an extremely high level and will potentially have the benefit of facing a less-than-100% Mahomes, or no Mahomes at all.
I was a bit wary of the Chiefs heading into the playoffs because they haven’t truly been tested since losing to the Bengals during the regular season, a game in which a healthy Mahomes completed 16-of-27 passes for 223 yards.
Zac Taylor‘s team has the better defense and special teams unit, and the Bengals won’t be scared of the occasion after winning in Kansas City last post-season. Don’t be surprised to see them get it done again when it matters most.
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About the Author
A soccer and MMA fanatic who believes the eye test far outweighs statistics, apart from when it comes to betting. With experience writing for several years, Daniel is an avid sports fan but also enjoys obstacle courses, music and views from a height.
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