Bayern Munich vs PSG Picks; Munich to sneak through on the night

Updated March 7, 2023
Updated March 7, 2023By Dean Etheridge

PSG head to Germany this week attempting to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Bayern Munich in the 2nd leg of their Champions League Round of 16 match. Here we assess their chances and tell you how we think they will get on with our latest free soccer betting picks

Bayern Munich Vs Psg Champions League Picks

Former PSG player, Kingsley Coman scored the solitary goal in the first leg, striking after 53 minutes.

The goal puts Munich in the driving seat heading into the 2nd leg. And with PSG head coach, Christophe Galtier under increasing pressure, elimination from the Champions League at this early stage could have even bigger repercussions for the French champions. 

On the pitch, there is no Benjamin Pavard for Bayern Munich. The defender is suspended after a late red card in the 1st leg. As for PSG, they are without Brazilian superstar Neymar, who is missing with an ankle injury. All this adds up to Munch going into the match as favorites to win on the night, and also to qualify for the next round. 

Bayern Munich vs PSG Betting Odds 

Bayern Munich are expected to progress to the quarter-finals of the 2022/23 Champions League. The German side went to Paris last month and came away from the romantic city with a 1-0 win on Valentine’s Day. Now with home advantage, the Bundesliga leaders will be fully expecting to get the job completed in the 2nd leg. 

To win the match on the night, Bayern Munich are -120 with the best soccer betting sites. PSG is +275, and the draw is +348. On the handicap spread, BetOnline is giving PSG half a goal. Starting from +0.5 goals, the French champions are +100, with Bayern (-0.5) at -120. Under 3.5 goals is -135. Over 3.5 goals is +115.

When it comes to betting to qualify for the next round, Bayern are seriously heavy favorites. The Bavarians are -500 to take their place in the quarter-final draw. PSG are +360 to advance to the next round with BetOnline. 

Below we’ve put together an odds table using the latest betting odds from some of the best soccer betting sites. You can read more about these sites on our best online sportsbook reviews page.

Bayern Munich vs PSG BettingBetOnlineBetUSBovada

Munich finding from at the right time 

Usually by this stage of the season, Bayern Munich are out of sight in the Bundesliga. That is not the case this year as they are only leading their domestic league table ahead of Borussia Dortmund on goal difference

The Germans haven’t had things all their own way recently. Since the resumption of the league in January, Munich has won four, drawn three, and lost once. The three draws were their first three matches back after the season resumed. 

More recently they have won four of their last five Bundesliga matches, and now seem to be hitting form just at the right time.

Defensive lapses costing PSG 

In France, PSG is again running away with Ligue 1. The champions are now eight points clear of second placed Marseille. The leaders have won their last three in the French league, including a comprehensive 3-0 win away to Marseille. 

But they did lose three in a row prior to that. The losses were the 1-0 defeat to Bayern, a 3-1 league defeat away to Monaco, and a 2-1 French Cup defeat to Marseille. 

Things haven’t been great for PSG since the league resumed though. As we mentioned earlier, the pressure is now on Christophe Galtier who badly needs a big win to restore some confidence in his leadership. 

Even in the recent run of three wins, PSG managed to concede five goals. On Saturday they let in two at home against Nantes in a 4-2 win. While on 19th February, Lille put three past the leaders in an unconvincing performance from the champions. On that night, PSG required a 95th minute winner from Lionel Messi to secure a 4-3 win. 

Stick or twist for Bayern?

When a team has a lead in two-legged matches, the temptation can be to hold what they have. Bayern are in exactly that position. They hold the upper hand and have home advantage. So will Munich decide to stick or twist?

The Germans did have the better of things in the first match. Julian Nagelsmann’s team dominated for large parts of the first half. And although PSG fought back in the second period, they still came off second best all round on the night. 

In the possession, Bayern had 54% to PSG’s 46%. The Germans had 18 attempts on goal to PSG’s nine, with seven of Munich’s on target, and PSG hitting the target on just four occasions. 

Our Picks

Based on the statistics and what we witnessed on the night, Bayern Munich looked like the better team. 

We do think a bet on Munich to win in 90 minutes might be risky though. They don’t have to force the match, and the chances are they might let PSG do that, and hope to catch Messi and company on the break. 

Employing such tactics might prove risky for Bayern though. And this is why we’re not wagering on them. Munich are unlikely to come out all guns blazing, possibly allowing the Parisians back into the tie.

PSG and the draw is +100 with best Champions League betting sites, while the draw is +350. We wouldn’t be against picking PSG and the draw at +100, but we believe the draw is better value and make that our pick to win

DrawBayern Munich vs PSG
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If you prefer longer odds, in the correct score market, 1-1 is +750, and 2-2 is +1100

1-1Bayern Munich vs PSG
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2-2Bayern Munich vs PSG
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Bayern Munich vs PSG
Allianz Arena,Munich,Germany
Starting on
March 8, 2023
Ending on
March 8, 2023

About the Author

Dean Etheridge
Dean Etheridge

Over the last 10 years, Dean has sharpened his expertise in crafting and revising content for his soccer and cricket betting platforms. Driven by his passion for sports betting and writing, he embarked on a journey of writing about sports wagering. Although Dean's preferred areas of focus are the English Premier League and cricket, his extensive sports knowledge enables him to tackle nearly any sport. Gone are the days of traveling the world to witness events like FIFA World Cups and Ashes cricket, as Dean now prefers the comfort of his own home while enjoying sports.

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