NASCAR Xfinity 500 Betting Picks

Updated June 30, 2022
Updated June 30, 2022By Dean Etheridge
Nascar 28 10 2021 Sbs

The penultimate round of the 2021 Nascar season is almost upon us, and it presents a great chance for pre-race favorite Martin Truex Jr to confirm his place at next weekend’s final. 

At the moment Truex Jr is on the bubble. In other words, just outside the top 4 who will qualify for the season finale – the 2021 Nascar Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix.

In total, eight drivers are fighting it out for the four spots to win the Nascar Cup.

So far only Kyle Larson – of the eight – has confirmed his position in the final. Larson has won both the Round of 8 races so far and is also the favorite to lift the Nascar Cup trophy at Phoenix Raceway

The Xfinity 500 is the final race in this phase of the competition. 

The four drivers currently occupying the places in the final are the already qualified Kyle Larson, alongside Chase Elliott (2nd), Denny Hamlin (3rd), and Kyle Busch (4th).

Fighting to get themselves into the top 4 for the final is Ryan Blaney (5th), Martin Truex Jr (6th), Brad Keselowski (7th), and Joey Logano (8th). 

If none of the seven not already qualified wins this race, it comes down to points. At the moment, fourth place Busch is the most vulnerable driver to missing out on the final.

All seven will be looking to get the win here and get through automatically!

Nascar Xfinity 500 Winner BettingBetUSBetOnline
Martin Truex Jr+450+350
Kyle Larson+500+500
Denny Hamlin+550+650
Chase Elliott+650+600
Ryan Blaney+700+700
Kyle Busch+900+800
Brad Keselowski+1000+800
Joey Logano+1000+800
William Byron+1400+1100
Kevin Harvick+2500+2500

Xfinity 500 Preview

The Xfinity 500 race takes place at the Martinsville Speedway course, and at just over half a mile long is the shortest track on the Nascar Series Cup circuit.

This isn’t the first time Martinsville Speedway has been used for Nascar this season.

Back in April, the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 was held here. And guess who won it? Yep, Truex Jr.

This was one of Truex Jr’s four wins on the circuit this season. 

The Joe Gibbs Racing team’s cars perform better on the shorter circuits, meaning the likes of Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch all have a decent chance here.

Hamlin is looking good to make the final next weekend on points alone, but a win here puts it beyond doubt. 

Despite having a car – apparently – more suited to the circuit, Hamlin finished down in 24th in the April race here. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch was down in 19th. 

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Xfinity 500 Betting Picks

With such a big field and everyone at plus odds, I think it’s safe to make more than one pick to win. 

Winning a few bucks from the online sportsbooks is the name of the game, and if that means hedging our bets, then so be it.

The first driver to take a look at is Martin Truex Jr. He has the track record on this course, and it’s fair to say he badly needs the win to guarantee qualification.

In his last eight races on this circuit, Truex Jr has six top 5 finishes, along with an 8th and 22nd.

In his last ten races here, he has finished in the top 10 on eight occasions.

Does all this put extra pressure on his shoulders? It obviously does. 

But Truex Jr has been around for long enough to know how things roll. 

And with a track record like that on this circuit, Truex Jr simply has to be one of our betting picks to win here.

Martin Truex Jr To WinXfinity 500
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Team Penske Offer Value 

Next up let’s look for a bit of value. 

The Team Penske drivers are all fighting for one spot. Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano all sit outside the top 4, and only really Blaney has a chance to qualify on points alone.

And Ryan Blaney at +700 with BetOnline is the next driver I want to look at. 

The Team Penske driver sits 5th in the playoff standings and he has a pretty decent record of late at this circuit.

Yes, in April he finished in a disappointing 11th place. But in his two races prior to that on this circuit, he finished 2nd on both occasions.

In this race back in 2020, he finished 2nd from a starting place of 10th. 

Prior to that, in June 2020 he finished 2nd, that day he started 1st though. Although that was disappointing, it does suggest Blaney likes this circuit, and at +700 he is worth a small outlay.

Ryan Blaney To WinXfinity 500
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Finally, in that same race back in 2020, Joey Logano led the race for 234 laps and finished fourth. He finished 3rd here last November. 

While in April this year, he finished 6th, having started in 1st place.

Similar to his Team Penske teammate Blaney, it does all say that the car and the driver suit the circuit, and at +1000 with Bovada, Joey Logano is my outside pick to win the Xfinity 500. 

Joey Logano To WinXfinity 500
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About the Author

Dean Etheridge
Dean Etheridge

Dean is primarily a fan of English football who regularly attends games, and combining his hobby with his job, he is now a full-time sports betting writer. Rather than going down the educational route into sports journalism, Dean learned his trade by writing for his English football betting website since 2009, where he now boasts nearly 15 years of experience. After writing about football daily for years, Dean has taken the skills he learned and now uses them to great effect writing for numerous affiliate sites across the internet. A general all-around sports enthusiast with a passion for English football and cricket, Dean is also well able to turn his hand to writing about golf, tennis, F1, boxing, snooker, darts, and North American sports. Combining his extensive knowledge and experience with British humor and wit, Dean has developed into a trusted voice within the sports betting industry.

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