A wonderful NFL season continues into week 5 this week as we start to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.
It’s been a brilliant season so far, and this week we’ll look at three games involving the Atlanta Falcons taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Houston Texans clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Dallas Cowboys facing off with the Los Angeles Rams.
We’ll break down each game, give you our best free NFL betting picks, and see if we can earn you some extra cash for the end of the weekend.
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The Falcons had shocking start the season when they were beaten 27-26 by the New Orleans Saints and 31-27 by the Los Angeles Rams in the opening two games.
However they finally got on the winning trail in week 3 when they earned a 27-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks, before a great 23-20 win over the Cleveland Browns thanks to a comeback in Q4 to get them to a 2-2 record.
The Buccaneers have had the total opposite season alternatively, winning their opening two games 19-3 over the Dallas Cowboys and then beating the Saints 20-10.
But their last two outings saw them suffer a 14-12 defeat to the Green Bay Packers in week 3, before the Kansas City Chiefs hit them hard on MNF with a huge 41-31 win most recently.
The Buccaneers offense was off to a slow start this season, they managed their best points tally of the season so far in the defeat to the Chiefs and look to finally be getting warm.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have the eighth-best scoring offense in the NFL (25.8 points per game), which makes the Overs a good bet for anyone unsure of which way the game will swing.
Despite being without their most explosive playmaker in Cordarrelle Patterson due to a knee injury, the Falcons have enough offensive firepower to put up points against Tampa. We also know that Atlanta’s defense isn’t their strong suit, and Tom Brady has a great historical record against them, so expect plenty of points.
The Over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings between the Buccaneers and the Falcons and 4-0 in the past four games at Tampa Bay, so history is on our side too.
NFL picks – Over 48 points @ -105
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The Cowboys suffered defeat in the opening game, falling to the Bucs 19-3 but since then have come back and shown their quality with three straight wins.
They earned a win over the Cincinnati Bengals with a 20-17 scoreline, before swatting away the New York Giants with a 23-16 tally and then last week claimed victory over Washington Commanders with a dominant 25-10 score.
The 2022 Super Bowl champions the Rams opened their defense with a crushing 31-10 loss to Buffalo, before bouncing back with wins over the Falcons and St Louis Cardinals.
Their winning run came to an end last week though when the San Francisco 49ers smashed them 24-9 to give them a 2-2 record to start the season.
The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 in their past three games with Cooper Rush at quarterback. And although there were rumors that Dak Prescott could return, it seems unlikely that he’ll be available just yet.
However, while the Rams are 3-1 against Dallas in the Sean McVay era, this could be a game that the Cowboys steal but it’s far safer to go with extra points instead.
The Cowboys’ strength is their defense, ranking seventh in total yards allowed (308.5) and third in scoring (15.5) across the entire NFL this season. They’re also incredibly strong when it comes to rushing the passer, which is arguably the biggest weakness of the Rams’ offense.
Los Angeles has conceded 16 sacks, while the Cowboys have sacked the quarterback 15 times in four games. It’s a recipe for a winning bet.
The Rams’ offense is also predictable. It is Cooper Kupp or bust, with no run game to cover for if he has an off night.
NFL picks – Cowboys +5.5 @ -110
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The Texans have had a shocking start to their season and are currently the only team in the entire NFL to be winless after four games. They opened the season with a 20-20 tie against the Indianapolis Colts, before a three-game losing streak began.
They lost to Denver Broncos 16-9 in week 2, suffered a 23-20 defeat against the Chicago Bears, before a dominant 34-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers most recently.
The Jaguars have had a mixed season so far, but have shown some promise. They were beaten 28-22 by the Washington Commanders in week 1, before a shutout 24-0 win over the Colts to get back on track in week 2.
They followed that up with a big 38-10 win over the Chargers, but last week suffered a 29-21 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles thanks to a huge second-quarter performance making them 2-2.
If the Jaguars want to prove they’re not pretenders in the AFC South, then they should be dominating this game against the Texans with ease this week.
Jacksonville also fields the superior coach, quarterback, and roster from top to bottom. There are really no excuses for them to not win comfortably.
This is the best Jaguars team since they made their AFC Championship game run in 2017, which was also the last time they defeated the Texans straight up.
In both of Jacksonville’s wins this season, they have covered the spread and have outscored opponents, 62-10. Those opponents were the Colts and Chargers. Now they face the far weaker Texans, so expect them to do it again.
NFL picks – Jaguars -7 @ -110