The NFL is back for week 9 of the regular season as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Miami Dolphins in the Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany in some early Sunday action.
The Chiefs have had a fantastic season so far with a 6-2 record heading into this game, while the Dolphins have been even equally good with a 6-2 record of their own.
We’ll take a look at the match-up and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you take in the action on the field.
The reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs stepped into the 2023 season with a trip to face off with the Detroit Lions, with many expecting a rout, but eventually suffering a shock come-from-behind defeat despite having led 14-7 at half-time.
Kansas bounced back in week 2 though against the Jacksonville Jaguars, putting in a solid display of defensive strength and efficient offense to claim a 17-9 win and get back on track of their championship defense.
Then in week 3 they showed their true selves as Mahomes threw three passing touchdowns to help the Chiefs romp to a 41-10 victory, including a 27-0 second quarter. They followed that with a 23-20 win over the New York Jets in week 4, before claiming a dominant win over the Minnesota Vikings immediately after that in week 5.
Then came a 19-8 win over Denver Broncos in a poor quality game, before a strong 31-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers to stretch their win streak to six. But last time out in a second meeting with the Broncos they found themselves on the end of another shocking defeat, this time losing 24-9.
The Dolphins have been in excellent form so far this season and have been one of the consistently best teams. Their season opened with a crazy 36-34 win over the Chargers, before a 24-17 win followed against the New England Patriots in week 2.
They then scored a season-high 70 points when they thrashed the Broncos 70-20, before the Buffalo Bills caused them big problems and defeated them 48-20 to snap their win streak.
They got back on track in week 5 with a 31-16 win over the New York Giants, before a 42-21 win over the Carolina Panthers in week 6 cemented them as one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season.
But Philadelphia Eagles made them pay for a poor showing in week 7 as they claimed a 31-17 win, before Miami got back to winning ways last time out with a 31-17 win over the Patriots once again.
If there’s one thing that is seemingly a lock in the NFL these days, it’s backing Patrick Mahomes‘ Chiefs to cover the spread when it’s less than a field goal.
It’s no secret that Kansas City has struggled to cover big numbers over the course of the last few seasons, but the Chiefs thrive in this role where they only need to win a field goal for their backers to cash in for a winning ticket. In fact, for his career, Mahomes is 14-4-1 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of under a field goal.
There is excellent value on Kansas City this week coming off a baffling loss at Denver, although it has since come to light that Mahomes was battling a bad case of the flu pre-game and that will no doubt have affected him.
He is expected to be fully fit and recovered by the time this game comes around though, and things should come much easier against a Dolphins defense that has a ton of injuries at the moment and was hardly any good to begin with this season.
Miami’s offense has looked incredible in the majority of games this season, but you cannot ignore the level of competition in those games.
When they came up against two more competent and dangerous teams in Philadelphia and Buffalo, they were allowed to move the ball at will and kept Miami’s offense at bay for dominant victories. There’s no reason why Mahomes and Kansas City won’t feel they can do the same in Germany.
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51 points is a really big number to hit, but even moreso when it’s two of the better football teams in the league.
Kansas are still the best team in the NFL despite their shock loss last time out, and Miami have proved that if their offense is on song they can blast anyone away. But the chances of both of things happening at the same time are slim.
When Kansas are at their best they’re methodical offensively and solid defensively, which means it’s usually a one-sided result rather than a real back and forth affair. As such, only one of their games this season has seen this total hit and it was the game where they scored their highest points total so far against Chicago.
The Dolphins can definitely score points which gives the over a chance, but there is better value in the under landing on this occasion especially when you consider the neutral venue and the fact the Chiefs are coming off a loss.
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About the Author
A soccer and MMA fanatic who believes the eye test far outweighs statistics, apart from when it comes to betting. With experience writing for several years, Daniel is an avid sports fan but also enjoys obstacle courses, music and views from a height.
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