President Donald Trump and the Republican Party have reasons to worry about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which take place on November 3, 2026. Up for grabs on that date will be all 435 districts in the House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate. Right now, Republicans control both the House and the Senate. The Republicans hold a 53-45 majority in the Senate with two independents caucusing with the Democrats. In the House, the Republicans have a 219-213 majority, with three vacancies.
There are several reasons Trump and his party should be worried about the election. The president’s approval rating is currently at an all-time low. His approval is also the lowest it’s ever been on handling inflation, handling of jobs, and the economy. There is also the worry, as we head into 2026, that health insurance premiums will spike if the Affordable Care Act credits are not extended by Republicans.
In addition, the Democrats saw big wins in recent elections, with Zohran Mamdani winning the New York mayoral race, Abigail Spanberger becoming Virginia’s governor, and Mikie Sherrill winning the New Jersey governor’s race.
We look at how the 2026 midterms could shake out.
| 2026 US Midtern Election |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans Win Both | +230 | +230 | +200 |
| Democrats Win Both | +250 | +250 | +225 |
| Democrat House / Republican Senate | -120 | -120 | -125 |
| Republican House / Democrat Senate | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 |
According to a recent YouGov poll, the Democrats have their largest lead of the year to take control of Congress. As of early November, 46 percent of registered voters polled said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 39 percent said they would vote Republican.
The Democrats’ lead is larger than it was before the 2024 election and larger than it was ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
As for those who voted for president in 2024, 87 percent of Harris voters said they would side with the Democrats in 2024, while 80 percent of Trump voters said they would vote Republican in the midterms.
The poll also looked at voters who did not participate in the 2024 presidential election. Of those individuals, 43 percent said they would vote Democrat, while 20 percent said they would vote Republican.
If President Trump’s popularity continues to drop and Americans become more worried about the economy and jobs, Republicans in the House and Senate will be very vulnerable in the midterms.
As Sidney Blumenthal wrote in the Guardian, “The Republicans are helpless. Through their abject obedience to him [Trump] they have permitted Trump to sever their organic connection to their voters. None dare venture any longer to town halls in their districts. They cower before their constituents’ wrath over Trump. He is more unpopular than any president of recent time, including himself after January 6, with the exception of George W Bush at the end of his presidency in the financial collapse… The closer they attach themselves to him, the more vulnerable they become. The voters repudiate Trump by rejecting Republicans.”
“Trump is the cause for which they will suffer the effect,” added Blumenthal. “He will not be on the ballot. Only they will pay the butcher’s bill.”
In short, if Trump’s popularity doesn’t rise, Republicans up for election might have to split with Trump to save their seats. However, if they do that, they risk being primaried by someone Trump supports.
The first thing the history of midterm elections tells us is that the president’s party almost always loses seats. Going back to 1938, that has been the outcome in 20 of the 22 elections held. The two exceptions were George W. Bush following the attacks of 9/11, and in 1998 after the Republicans attempted, and failed, to impeach Bill Clinton.
Another factor affecting the midterms is the president’s popularity. The more popular the president is, the smaller the loss of seats. Right now, Trump has a historic low approval rating. As Brooking noted, “during the past three decades, every time the president’s net job approval (approval minus disapproval) was negative a year before a midterm election, the president’s party lost ground in the House.”
A third worry for Republicans is that the more House seats the president’s party holds in presidential election years, the larger those losses are in the midterms. It comes down to the fact that a popular president brings votes with him, but when that president is not on the ballot, his party’s losses increase. As Brookings wrote, “After Barack Obama’s victory over John McCain in 2008—with the highest margin of victory in two decades that helped propel House Democrats to their largest majority since 1992—they lost 63 seats, and their majority, two years later.”
Even without poor ratings, Republicans would be in danger of losing the House in 2026, as history shows. The fact is, the president’s party has the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years, and because of that, Trump’s popularity, the betting pick is that the Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in 2026, while the Senate will stay with the Republicans.
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Trent's your man when it comes to all things sports. He covers a wide range of sports for Sports Betting Sites, and has been published in some pretty reputable outlets, such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's got the inside track on all the happenings in the world of sports.
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