The 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is down to its final 16 players. The annual tennis tournament, which has been taking place since 1974, concludes on Sunday, March 15 when the winning player takes home $1,151,380 of a total prize pool of $9,415,725. The runner-up pockets $612,340. In 2025, Jack Draper defeated Holger Rune to win at Indian Wells. Draper ended Carlos Alcaraz’s run of back-to-back victories in 2023 and 2024. Draper and Rune also ended Daniil Medvedev’s streak of two straight appearances in the final.
When the Round of 16 began, the top four players in the world remained in the tournament: Alcaraz, Jannick Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev. Draper was also in the mix. Rune withdrew from the event before play began.
With the Indian Wells heading toward the quarterfinals, we look at the betting odds, picks, and predictions regarding who will win the first of the nine ATP Masters 1000 tournaments scheduled for the 2026 ATP Tour schedule.
| To Win Indian Wells 2026 |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | -125 | -120 | -115 |
| Jannik Sinner | +1600 | +125 | +110 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +1600 | +1700 | +1400 |
| Novak Djokovic | +1800 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2200 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Jack Draper | +3300 | +4000 | +3300 |
| Félix Auger-Aliassime | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Learner Tien | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Alex Michelsen | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Arthur Fils | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Casper Ruud | +8000 | +10000 | +6600 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | +10000 | +10000 | +12500 |
| Cameron Norrie | +10000 | +12500 | +12500 |
| Frances Tiafoe | +10000 | +12500 | +10000 |
| Joao Fonseca | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Rinky Hijikata | +12500 | +15000 | +15000 |
The winner at Indian Wells in 2024 and 2025 looks to join Rafael Nadal as a three-time winner. A victory at this year’s event will put the 22-year-old Carlos Alcaraz one step closer to Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, who are both five-time winners of this event. Alcaraz earned his way to the fourth round with a 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 win over Arthur Rinderknech. The No. 1 player in the world meets No. 13 ranked Caper Ruud in the Round of 16.
Alcaraz began the 2026 season with his first win at the Australian Open. With the victory, he became the youngest man to earn a career Grand Slam at 22 years and 272 days. Don Budge previously held the record at 22 years and 363 days. Budge won all four Grand Slam events in 1938.
Alcaraz is unbeaten to open the 2026 season and has won 70 of his past 75 matches. That stretch dates back to April 2025. His only losses during that time are to Holger Rune in Barcelona, Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final, Taylor Fritz at the Laver Cup, Cam Norrie in Paris, and Sinner at the ATP Finals.
The 24-year-old Jannik Sinner has never won at Indian Wells. His best finish in the event came in 2023 and 2024 when he made it to the semifinals, only to lose to Alcaraz (7-6, 6-3) in 2023 and 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 in 2024. Sinner did not play in the 2025 event. Some good news for Sinner is that with his No. 2 ranking, he can only meet Alcaraz, who is ranked No. 1, in the 2026 Indian Wells finals.
Sinner has Grand Slam wins at the Australian Open (2024, 2025), Wimbledon (2025), and the US Open (2024). He made the finals of the French Open in 2025, but lost to Alcaraz (4-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 7-6).
Sinner is 8-2 to open the 2026 season, reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open, where he lost to Novak Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
The two-time runner-up at Indian Wells, Daniil Medvedev, lost to Alcaraz in 2023 and 2024. The 30-year-old is back and looking for his first win at this event. The No. 11 ranked player in the world is coming off a win at the Dubai Tennis Championships. Medvedev, who also won in Dubai in 2023, did not lose a set in that tournament.
The former No. 1 player in the world, Medvedev’s trip to Indian Wells had him reportedly driving from Dubai to Oman and then flying to Istanbul and arriving in California on March 4. Luckily for Medvedev, he had a bye in the first round of the tournament.
Medvedev won the ATP 250 event in Brisbane to open 2026, but lost in the Round of 16 of the Australian Open to Learner Tien (6-4, 6-0, 6-3).
With the run he is on since last year and his two previous wins at Indian Wells, it’s hard to bet against Carlos Alcaraz getting his third victory in this tournament.
The betting pick is for Carlos Alcaraz to win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells.
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Trent's your man when it comes to all things sports. He covers a wide range of sports for Sports Betting Sites, and has been published in some pretty reputable outlets, such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's got the inside track on all the happenings in the world of sports.
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