For the third time in six years, Canadians will be going to the polls to elect a new federal government. The ruling Liberal Party dissolved Parliament and called an election for September 20.
Critics felt that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might be making a mistake by calling an election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current polling numbers are suggesting that the naysayers may have had a point.
The Liberals won in 2016 the last time Canada went to the polls but only came away with a minority government. The polls are suggesting that Liberal hopes of regaining a majority mandate in this election are fast slipping away.
BetOnline is offering a series of prop wagers on the Canadian federal election that Canadian election bettors can play. Trudeau is the -900 favorite to retain his title as Prime Minister of Canada. His Liberal Party is given -600 odds to win the most seats in this election.
In 1968 Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Justin’s father, was elected Prime Minister of Canada. In his first election as leader of the party, the elder Trudeau earned a majority government as leader of the Liberal Party.
Running for re-election in 1972, Trudeau won again, but this time he only earned a minority government, with the Conservative Party finishing second.
In 2015, Justin Trudeau was elected Prime Minister of Canada. In his first election as leader of the party, the elder Trudeau earned a majority government as leader of the Liberal Party.
Running for re-election in 2019, Justin Trudeau won again, but this time he only earned a minority government, with the Conservative Party finishing second.
In 1974, the elder Trudeau bounced back strongly, easily defeating the Conservatives to regain a majority hold on the government. Will the son do just as the father did? At this stage in the proceedings, it still appears that Trudeau is going to win. However, the likelihood that the younger Trudeau will regain his majority government grows slimmer with each passing day.
While the Liberal Party is still strongly favored to capture the most seats, polls are continuing to show that their chances of winning a majority government have been in sharp decline since this election campaign began. At their current poll numbers, they are actually projecting to win fewer seats than the 157 they captured during the 2019 election.
The chances of the Conservative Party winning the most seats in this election have increased to 25 percent. As well, the NDP could nearly double the size of its caucus in comparison to the 2019 election. The Bloc Quebecois is on pace to retain most of its seats.
In terms of the provincial breakdown, the Liberal Party is holding the lead in terms of expected seats won in Ontario, Quebec, and across Canada’s Maritime provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
Across the Prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, it’s the Conservatives who are the dominant force. As well, Conservative support is growing in B.C., where they are in almost a dead heat with the Liberals, and in both Ontario and throughout the Maritime provinces.
Nationally, the latest polling averages show exactly how tight this race is proving to be. The Liberals are ahead with 32.2 percent. The Conservatives are almost dead even with them at 31.6 percent. The NDP under leader Jagmeet Singh is third at 20.0 percent.
Currently, analytics calculate a 24 percent chance that the Liberals will win a majority. The Conservatives are offered a 23 percent chance of winning the most seats but not gaining a majority government. Their giving just a one percent chance of forming a majority government.
The most likely outcome according to polling data is a Liberal minority government. Data suggests that the result offers a 51 percent chance of happening.
The multi-party Canadian parliamentary system of government can make for some strange political bedfellows. Minority governments tend to be only as strong as the bipartisan bonds that are formed in order to keep the party with the most seats in power.
The Liberal minority won in 2015 was the fourth Canadian minority government since 2000. Under current projections, the Liberal Party will finish this election with between 133-180 seats. The Conservative Party is projected to end up with between 101-138 seats.
The key, though, could be the next two finishers if indeed another minority government is formed. Projections have the New Democratic Party coming in anywhere from 27-49 seats, while the Bloc Quebecois could bring home between 20-31 seats.
Under the Canadian system, voters elect their local Member of Parliament. Then those MPs are the ones who decide the government by granting confidence in the House of Commons. Essentially, that means the leader of a second-place finisher in the election could still become Prime Minister if it was a minority government and they were able to convince the party finishing in third place to form a coalition that combined gave them more votes in the House than the party that actually finished first in the election.
There are a number of leading online betting sites that will provide bettors with the chance to place a wager on the Canadian federal election and other wagers involving the field of politics.