In May, Canelo Alvarez unified the super middleweight titles when he won back the IBF crown he never lost in the ring with a 12-round unanimous decision win over William Scull. Alvarez also retained his WBA, WBC, WBO, and The Ring titles with that victory. Not long after the win, it was announced that Alvarez would put all of his 168-pound titles on the line against unified welterweight champion and WBA junior middleweight champion Terence Crawford on September 12 in Las Vegas. The matchup takes place at Allegiant Stadium, home of the NFL’s Las Vegas Raiders.
Crawford last fought in August, defeating Israil Madrimov. He won the WBA light middleweight title and the vacant WBO interim light middleweight belt on that night. Before that, Crawford became the undisputed welterweight champion with a 2023 TKO win over Errol Spence. Crawford’s win over Madrimov was his first fight at a weight over 147 pounds; the bout took place at 154 pounds. Crawford is stepping up to 168 pounds to face Alvarez.
At 35, Canelo Alvarez has begun to slow, which is not a shock considering how long he’s spent at the top of the sport. Even though Alvarez is not throwing or landing as many punches as he once did, his counterpunching abilities and his ability to find and exploit openings make him one of the most dangerous fighters today.
Alvarez (63-2-2 with 39 knockouts) could struggle finding those openings against Crawford, who employs a busy lead hand. Alvarez will also need to be aware of his output, which has been falling over the years. If Crawford is busy with his lead hand, and he will be, Alvarez cannot just sit back in his guard or employ defensive head movement. He needs to respond with activity and not get caught in thinking defense above offense.
Alvarez also needs to be more responsible when throwing punches. He can sometimes overthrow and put himself out of position, which will allow the speedy Crawford openings. In short, Alvarez needs to be more well-rounded and offensive than he has over the past few years.
The 37-year-old Terence Crawford is the smaller fighter, and that’s where a lot of people will begin and end their analysis of this fight, but that would be a mistake. On paper, Crawford (41-0 with 31 knockouts) has the skills to hand Alvarez his third career loss, but more importantly, he has the blueprint on how to do so and the ability to put that plan into action.
Crawford is the most skilled fighter in boxing today. He will use his lead hand to keep Alvarez guessing. That approach will also prevent Alvarez from picking up timing and openings, reducing the champ’s output. Crawford also has very good movement, which could put Alvarez off his game, while allowing Crawford to control distance. Crawford is also excellent at working around the high guard, which Alvarez employs.
The keys for Crawford are to stay busy, control space, reduce Alvarez’s output, exploit Alvarez’s tendencies to overthrow, and work behind an inactive high guard. That’s a lot to ask from a fighter moving up two weight divisions, but Crawford has all the skills he needs to beat Alvarez.
Canelo Alvarez is the betting favorite because of his size and history, but Terence Crawford is not an opponent to take lightly. Crawford doesn’t need to knock out Alvarez to get the win, he just needs to win more rounds than he loses, and he has the skills to do that.
The betting pick is Terence Crawford to beat Canelo Alvarez on September 13 in Las Vegas.
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Trent's your man when it comes to all things sports. He covers a wide range of sports for Sports Betting Sites, and has been published in some pretty reputable outlets, such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's got the inside track on all the happenings in the world of sports.
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