It’s nearly time for Week 9 of the NFL season, and the matches just keep on getting better and better.
Week 8 saw a second defeat of the season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and also the end of the Arizona Cardinals’ unbeaten run.
The Buccaneers’ 36-27 defeat away to New Orleans Saints also sees them replaced as the online sportsbooks favorites to win the 2022 Super Bowl.
|2022 Super Bowl Winner Betting|
|Green Bay Packers||+900||+950|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+1200||+1200|
The Buffalo Bills took over that tag after they defeated the Miami Dolphins 26-11 last Sunday.
The Bills are now the +500 favorites, with the Buccaneers at +550.
The aforementioned Tampa Bay aren’t in action this weekend, so let’s have a look at the teams who are playing, and get ourselves some NFL picks.
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It’s not very often we go into an NFL match week saying that Miami is the NFL betting favorite. But this week, Miami is the favorite!
Yes, the Dolphins are up against a side doing worse than they are – the Houston Texans.
Well, let’s clarify that.
Both sides are as bad as each other performance-wise. The Texans are bottom of AFC South with a 1-7 record, while the Dolphins are bottom of AFC East with a 1-7 record.
The difference is, the Texans were expected to be this bad, while the Dolphins were not!
The Dolphins also have home-field advantage and have seen performances improve somewhat since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.
Last weekend they were all square at the halfway mark against the Buffalo Bills. Although, they did fall away somewhat in the second half of the match – eventually going down 26-11.
As for the Houston Texans, they went down 38-22 at home to the LA Rams.
More significant for the Texans is their last three matches on the road have seen them score a combined total of just 8 points.
Odds of -290 with BetUS for the Dolphins on the Moneyline seems a bit short for a side with a 1-7 record.
So instead, for better value, I’m going for Miami Dolphins to win on the spread for my betting pick.
Next up is the unpredictable Kansas City Chiefs against the on-a-roll Green Bay Packers.
The Packers take their seven-match winning streak to Missouri, looking to make it eight in a row on Sunday.
They come up against a Kansas side that has struggled to put a run together. But they are also a Kansas side whom many believe will turn things around and come good sooner or later.
The Packers sit top of the NFC North with their 7-1 record. While for the Chiefs (4-4), they are third in the AFC West.
This match is a very close call with the online sportsbooks, and they can barely be separated.
There is no point spread of any note here really, it’s a straight call between who you think will win. Basically, a call on which Kansas City Chiefs turn up on the day. Although the Packers have a +1 advantage, so that makes them better value.
If the match was in Wisconsin, I have no doubt the Packers would be betting favorites. But as it’s the Chiefs with home-field advantage, they just get the betting favorites tag.
The Packers could easily have lost a close game away to the unbeaten (at the time) Arizona Cardinals, but they held out for the win.
So I’m going to go with the form rather than speculate on which Chiefs turn up, and I make the Green Bay Packers my pick to win on the Points Spread.
Next up is an intriguing matchup in the NFC West division.
Despite the huge disparity in the win-loss records, these two sides are closely matched with the online sportsbooks.
For me, I can see why, as the 49ers have improved in recent weeks.
But so far this season the 49ers are 0-3 at home, and although that run of losses will end at some stage, I’m not convinced it will be this weekend.
The Cardinals almost managed to snatch victory at the death away to the Packers in Week 8’s Thursday match, but ultimately their unbeaten run came to an end.
A close game is expected this week. But I’m again going to go with the longer-term form, and I make the Cardinals my pick to win this match on the Moneyline.