The 4th of July usually means a time for celebration and parties across the United States of America, but for us, it means Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is back for another edition in 2023.
The legendary Joey Chestnut is back once again to defend his crown as he looks to make it eight wins in a row and 15 wins in the last 16 years, to continue his domination of this competition and the professional eating space.
Will he be able to do it again in 2023 or will someone else step up to stop his dominant run? And what about the women’s contest? We’ll take a look and provide you with our best free betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash for the holiday.
|Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023|
Joey Chestnut is the consensus GOAT when it comes to the sport of competitive eating and with good reasons too when you look at his record in this contest since he started taking part.
He’s been unbeatable in 14 of the past 15 events, winning seven straight, and holding all the records for this competition and dominating this space for as long as anyone can remember.
Chestnut has lost before, and anything can happen, but the last time he lost was in 2015 when Matt Stonie scoffed 62 in ten minutes. Chestnut has only ever gone lower than that on four occasions in career and got 63 in 2022’s edition.
At -2500 there isn’t any value in just backing him straight to win the contest, but it’s the obvious winning bet so picking anything else would just be costing you money. It’s probably best to avoid overall, but if you are going to make a bet then it has to go on “Jaws” to win.
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The real value is in the market of who wins the contest without Chestnut, and that’s where Geoffrey Esper comes out on top.
In 2022 he was the runner-up after inhaling 47 hot dogs in the ten minutes – still a way off Chestnut’s impressive 63. But his capacity for eating a lot is well known as he holds multiple records in other contests, including eating 83 slices of pizza in ten minutes, 281 Hooters wings in 10 minutes, 293 Jack’s Donut Holes in eight minutes and 36 4.5oz Brats in ten minutes too.
Geoffrey can eat plenty in a short amount of time, but coming up against Chestnut is just an impossible task to anyone who is even remotely normal. The aforementioned Brats record could certainly help him too, and that makes him a great bet for the runner-up position.
His own record for hot dogs is 51, but bearing in mind he came second with 47 last year he may not even need to break that record to match the achievement.
If Chestnut stumbles in any way then Esper is the man primed to take his crown, but there is plenty of value in backing him in this market instead of winning outright so go with that to protect your investment a little.
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Chestnut has finished at least 75 dogs in two of the past three years, but last year saw a big drop-off when it comes to the number he could take down.
Some have suggested that his battle with a protestor early on could have been the difference though rather than a drop in ability, and some believe he is going to push for the record to prove he’s still got it. He was on pace to do it too before that incident, and it’s really his only motivation for continuing to compete in this contest at this point.
Chestnut fell below 70 dogs for the first time since 2014 last year and he went well below the spread of 73.5, which is what it’s set at yet again.
It’s fair to question whether Chestnut has peaked in his career as he is now 39-years-old, but it seems to have been forgotten that he was on pace for a world record 77 hot dogs last year until a protestor interrupted his rhythm and got choked out for his problems.
Breaking the record would purely be a personal feat for him though as he could eat far less and still win so it all comes down to his motivation on the day. The value is with him making history, so it seems like the best option when it comes to the betting.
Sudo consumed a total of 42 hot dogs and buns in 2022, in her first year back after giving birth to her first child. If anyone doubted her, she proved she is the female version of Chestnut in professional eating.
She proved that she is still among the elite and dominated the opposition, and extended her record of winning every time she has entered the competition since 2014. Her personal record is 48.5, but that was back in 2020. Excluding that anomaly of a year, she has been under 40 in three of her last five, and under 45 every time.
It’s likely to go down to the final seconds, but if she gets over 40 that’s an achievement so 45 would be pushing it too far.
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