Kentucky Derby 2025: Burnham Square is the best bet

Updated April 29, 2025
Updated April 29, 2025By Rowan Ward

The Kentucky Derby is coming to Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3! This means it’s time to get ready to bet the Kentucky Derby, because it is one of the best betting opportunities of the year. The purse is a colossal $5 million, and a field of 20 of the best three-year-old horses will line up to compete for a huge purse, a blanket of roses, and a place in horse racing history.

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It is not only one of the most exciting races of the year, but the payoffs are some of the best, as well! Keep reading to find out who to bet in the Kentucky Derby, as well as the best sportsbooks for betting horse racing online.

Betting the Kentucky Derby Online

We’d all love to go to the Kentucky Derby, but not all of us can go to Louisville for the week. The good news is by betting the Kentucky Derby online, you can be a part of the action from anywhere! Though there are many options for betting online, our online sportsbook reviews will help you make a quick, confident, and profitable decision.

Every site we recommend has the basics of a great experience: market-leading odds, a great user experience, and trusted deposit and payout features. Every site also offers online betting bonuses like signup and deposit bonuses, referral benefits, and even horse racing rebates that pay you for every bet you make!

These are the best online sportsbooks for betting the Kentucky Derby!

1
Bovada-logo
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50% bonus up to $250

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$ 250
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2
BetOnline-logo
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50% bonus up to $250

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$ 250
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$ 2000
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Handicapping the 2025 Kentucky Derby

This is the official field for the 2025 Kentucky Derby including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning lines:

  1. Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia) – 20/1
  2. Neoequos (Saffie Joseph, Jr. / Flavien Prat) – 30/1
  3. Final Gambit (Brad Cox / Luan Machado) – 30/1
  4. Rodriguez (Bob Baffert / Mike Smith) – 12/1
  5. American Promise (D. Wayne Lukas / Nic Juarez) – 30/1
  6. Admire Daytona (Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire) – 30/1
  7. Luxor Cafe (Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira) – 15/1
  8. Journalism (Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli) – 3/1
  9. Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez, Jr.) – 12/1
  10. Grande (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) – 20/1
  11. Flying Mohawk (Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos) – 30/1
  12. East Avenue (Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco) – 20/1
  13. Publisher (Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz) – 20/1
  14. Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario) – 20/1
  15. Render Judgment (Kenny McPeek / Julien Leparoux) – 30/1
  16. Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas) – 30/1
  17. Sandman (Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz) – 6/1
  18. Sovereignty (Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado) – 5/1
  19. Chunk of Gold (Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry) – 30/1
  20. Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano) – 30/1
  21. Baeza (John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat) – ALSO ELIGIBLE – 12/1

Baeza only gets into the field if at least one other horse scratches before 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, when Kentucky Derby betting begins.

The morning lines can be a nice sketch of expected betting action on horses, but they are no guarantee of on-track odds. Prices at the track fluctuate all the way until post time. Your best bet on the Kentucky Derby is to play at an online sportsbook. Not only do you get the convenience of betting from anywhere, but you can lock in your price just by making a bet!

BovadaBetOnlineBetUS
Journalism+300+285+280
Sovereignty+600+600+600
Sandman+800+1000+800
Luxor Cafe+1200+1100+1100
American Promise+1200+1800+1400
Burnham Square+1400+1400+1400
Rodriguez+1400+1400+1200

Kentucky Derby Handicapping Advice

Taking some of the major Kentucky Derby trends into account can help you pick a winner.

First and foremost, Kentucky Derby winners tend to win or hit the board in their final prep race. Most finish first or second, but since the points system began in 2013, every Kentucky Derby betting winner has finished at least third in their final prep: even colossal long shots Country House and Rich Strike!

Kentucky Derby winners also tend to come from some significant preps. Recently, those include  the Florida Derby, the Arkansas Derby, and the Santa Anita Derby. Since these preps typically draw the best horses, it makes sense that these are the horses who can step forward in Kentucky. Races like the Louisiana Derby, Blue Grass, and Jeff Ruby Steaks are improving, however; they frequently produce horses who hit the board.

Although favorites have not won the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby, favorites typically run well. Since the points system began in 2013, the favorite has not been out of the superfecta.

Kentucky Derby Best Bet

The best bet for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is Burnham Square. Winner of the Blue Grass (G1) in his most recent start, he reeled in a lone leader who set a fast pace that day. This time, he’ll get a fast and contested pace, an even better setup.

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He is a late runner who can also run a good race from more like midpack, giving him a shot to get a jump on the deepest closers if he really needs that. He can take his race to multiple tracks, his jockey Brian Hernandez is one of the six riders in the race who has won the Derby before, and he has plenty to like at a square price.

Kentucky Derby Market Leaders

Journalism will be the Kentucky Derby favorite for good reason. He tore through the California spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, beating a host of good horses along the way. He even proved in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) that he can handle a rough trip, always a good skill in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. And, with so much speed entered, it’s good that Journalism won’t get embroiled in a pace battle.

Speaking of the surfeit of early speed, Sovereignty should thrive with that kind of a setup. Gulfstream isn’t known as being friendly to closers, yet this Bill Mott trainee had a successful prep season there despite that being his running style. And, he’s not just a Gulfstream Horse – he broke his maiden in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs last year.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

In short, stay away from the one-way speed horses. Rodriguez is the one likely to get the most buzz and the most money, but Citizen Bull, Neoequos, and East Avenue also fall into this category. They’re going to make a great setup for horses coming off the pace, but it’s unlikely that they’ll see it out.

If the track is playing speed-friendly and you really want to back up with a pace horse, take a price in Owen Almighty. He’ll be a deservedly long price, but at least he has shown that he can do the dirty work on a fast pace and keep running fairly well.

Kentucky Derby Exotics Contenders.

Chunk of Gold and Grande are the two to consider for deeper exotics. Chunk of Gold has been an underneath type in the big Louisiana preps, and his late-running style and appealing distance pedigree make him a good long shot for lower rungs of exotics. Grande cedes experience to his opponents but has already shown nice pace versatility for Hall of Fame connections.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets

You’ve set up your betting account and gotten to know the top contenders in the race. Now, all that’s left to do is the most fun part of all: bet the Kentucky Derby online!

Here are your expert-recommended plays for the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

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About the Author

Rowan Ward
Rowan Ward

For a decade, Rowan Ward has been making horse race predictions and wagers in Chicago, and has been writing about horse racing for nearly just as long. Understanding the various factors that influence a race's outcome, they often find that the age-old saying "the pace makes the race" can uncover worthwhile betting opportunities. When it comes to handicapping, their favorite races are those held locally in Chicago, major stake races across the country, and two-year-old maiden races with intriguing bloodlines.

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