The next UFC pay-per-view fight card, UFC 318, takes place on Saturday, July 19, at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. The fight at the top of the bill is the trilogy matchup between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. The lightweight matchup finds Holloway putting his symbolic BMF title on the line. For those looking for a little more intrigue, the UFC 318 main event is also Poirier’s retirement fight.
Poirier is 2-0 against Holloway, beating him via submission at featherweight in 2012 and then defeating Holloway in 2019 via decision for the interim UFC lightweight title.
The No. 2 ranked UFC featherweight, and the No. 5 ranked lightweight, Max Holloway, has established himself as the standard for striking volume and output in the UFC.
The Hawaiian holds the UFC career record for significant strikes landed (3,457). Holloway also owns UFC records in total strikes landed (3,706). The former champ’s 2021 bout opposite Calvin Kattar saw him set records in striking differential (plus 312), significant strikes landed (445), significant strikes attempted (744), distance strikes landed (439), significant head strikes landed (274), significant body strikes landed (117), total strikes landed (447) and total strikes attempted (746). Only one UFC featherweight has managed to outstrike Holloway over the past 11 years, and that man is the current champion, Alexander Volkanovksi. In 30 career UFC fights, Holloway has only been knocked down once. That came in his last outing, an October 2024 knockout loss to then-UFC featherweight champ Ilia Topuria.
Holloway lands an average of 7.16 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 47 percent. He absorbs 4.76 significant strikes per minute with a striking defense of 59 percent. Holloway averages 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes. The ex-UFC champ has a takedown accuracy of 53 percent and a takedown defense of 83 percent.
While Holloway has fantastic cardio to go with his high-output style, he doesn’t have one punch stopping power, and he often relies on his strong chin when he gets into a slugfest.
Dustin Poirier is one of the most exciting fighters in the history of the UFC’s lightweight division, but at 36, with some hard fights in his past, it’s only fair to start to wonder if Poirier’s best days are behind him. When you add to the fact, that he knows this is his last professional fight, one might be concerned about Poirier’s commitment to this fight.
The native of Lafayette, Louisiana, has been facing top competition in the UFC for most of his 15 years with the WEC/UFC, and his 30 fights under the UFC banner make him one of the most prolific fighters in the history of the promotion.
Poirier is an outstanding striker with high-level boxing skills. A thoughtful but aggressive fighter, Poirier is well-trained. He uses a high striking output while mixing his wrestling and grappling skills when appropriate. He is defensively sound in the striking department, but when he finds an opening, he will pounce and increase his output and aggression, which can get him in trouble against a patient opponent with a high fight IQ.
Poirier lands an average of 5.30 significant strikes per minute, and he has an accuracy rate of 50 percent. He absorbs an average of 4.33 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52 percent. Poirier lands an average of 1.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 36 percent. His takedown defense is 64 percent.
This should be an exciting high-stakes and high-output contest. I expect both men to be dialed in and ready to give their best. Holloway wants to use this fight to build the next stage of his storied career, while Poirier hopes to end his MMA run with a win in front of a hometown crowd.
Expect Poirier’s power and precision to carry him on the scorecards.
The betting pick is for Dustin Poirier to beat Max Holloway by decision in the UFC 318 main event.
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