As the riders arrive at the Italian Grand Prix for Round 9 of the MotoGP series, a familiar face is once again running at the front of the pack. Mark Marquez, who won three of the first four races of the 2025 season, posted a perfect weekend last week at Aragon.
With his fourth win of the season, Marquez was extending his series lead to 32 points. He’s also being set by oddsmakers as the -225 odds-on favorite to win again this week.
Let’s look at the latest Italian Grand Prix MotoGP betting lines. Remember, odds are always subject to change.
| Italian Grand Prix Odds |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Marquez | -225 | -225 | -225 |
| Francesco Bagnaia | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Alex Marquez | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Franco Morbidelli | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Fabio Di Giannantonio | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Fermin Aldeguer | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Marco Bezzecchi | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Pedro Acosta | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Fabio Quartararo | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Brad Binder | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Johann Zarco | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Maverick Vinales | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Joan Mir | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Ai Ogura | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Enea Bastianini | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 |
| Jack Miller | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 |
Two-time world champion Francesco Bagnaia is the second betting choice at +300. Marc’s younger brother Alex Marquez in next with odds of +500. They are the only other riders with odds shorter than +2500.
For the most part, Marc Marquez has not enjoyed his trips around the Mugello Circuit. He won the Italian Grand Prix in 2014. That’s his only win there as a MotoGP rider.
In this season’s race, following Saturday qualifying will be the 11-lap sprint. The 23-lap main event race is set for Sunday at 8 a.m. EST around the 15-turn, 0.709-mile Mugello Circuit layout. Remember, the race odds could be changing based upon the results of the qualifying round and the sprint race. That’s why it’s always wise to track the early outcomes. You’ll be able to see which riders are holding hot hands and are the best for you to bet.
The six-time world champion won his 71st pole and 66th MotoGP race of his career two weeks ago at Aragon. That was bringing to an end a four-race winless drought for the Spaniard.
However, the Mugello circuit has not been kind to Marquez. He’s only had two podium finishes in his last eight starts in the Italian Grand Pix, a pair of second-place finishes. He’s cracked the top 10 once in the past four races.
MotoGP world champion in 2022 and 2023, Bagnaia won his home nation’s race both of those years. Even though he lost the title last year to Spain’s Jorge Martin, Bagnaia was able to continue his dominance, winning his third straight Italian Grand Prix.
He’s currently third in MotoGP standings. Bagnaia trails Ducati Lenovo teammate Marquez by 93 points.
Enjoying the best season of his MotoGP career, the younger Marquez still remains the second-best rider in his family. He’s second in the points, 32 back of his older sibling.
The Spaniard had a win in Spain and four seconds so far this season. He’s only finished in the top 10 once in the Italian Grand Prix. That was a ninth-place finish in last year’s race.
The Italiian rider hasn’t won a MotoGP race since 2020. He’s posted two thirds this season at Argentina and Qatar.
Morbidelli’s best finish in the Italian Grand Prix was a sixth-place showing in 2024.
Another Italian contender, Di Giannantonio has just one podium finish this season. That was a third-place result at the Grand Prix of the Americas.
His best finish in this race was a seventh-place outcome last year. It’s the only Italian Grand Prix in which Di Giannantonio has finished better than 11th.
At BetUS, Marc Marquez is showing -2500 odds to win the 2025 MotoGP Grand Prix world title. If so, it would be his first world title since 2019.
Younger brother Alex Marquez is the second betting choice at +1100. He’s never finished higher than eighth in a previous MotoGP season. Bagnaia is a distant third in this betting line at +3300.
This is Bagnaia’s race. If you’re going to bet an Italian rider to win their home country’s MotoGP Grand Prix, you’ve got to go with him.
Couple Bagnaia’s run of success at Mugello with the struggles of Marquez over the same circuit and it’s clear that Bagnaia is the best bet in the Italian Grand Prix MotoGP picks.
Once you are all up to speed on the latest MotoGP Italian Grand Prix news and information, make sure to check out the fantastic array of resources for you over at SBS. Of course, for even more analysis on the topic covered here, you should bookmark the MotoGP betting sites rundown. On this page you can find a variety of awesome information as it relates to the sport including the latest betting markets and beyond. Additionally, for those on the go, another fantastic page to familiarize yourself with is the best betting apps breakdown, which goes over all of the nuances of mobile betting sites and beyond. Finally, for those interested in maximizing their wagers, look no further than the best bonus betting sites guide, which contains a catalog of the latest and greatest welcome bonus offers.
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Theo is our NFL guy. He is the go-to man for all things football and has proven himself to be one of the most expansive writers here, with a broad knowledge of North American sports. He's a veteran journalist based in Ontario, and has covered the gambling and sports betting industry since 2016. He has written more than two dozen books and covered the NFL since the early 1990s.
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