Brandon A. Quick |  Fri 28/09/2018 - 07:39 EDT

UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Love him or hate him, the world is drawn to Connor McGregor. After nearly two years away from the octagon, the bad boy MMA star is back in action Sat, Oct 6 against lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov in Las Vegas. Perhaps surprisingly to some, it is McGregor who finds himself in the underdog role in this clash. I'll try to ignore the hype and focus on the fight's specifics to determine which pugilist gets my money.

Those unfamiliar to MMA should understand why Nurmagomedov is the -170 (risk $170 to win $100) favorite at most online sportsbooks to Connor McGregor’s +140 (risk $100 to win $140) as of the writing of this piece. 

Why Nurmagomedov is favored at a glance:

  • He’s  a perfect 26 for 26 in MMA fights over his ten-year career
  • He is a highly-skilled fighter with expertise in multiple disciplines
  • McGregor’s lack of recent experience in the octagon
  • Nurmagomedov presents stylistic problems for McGregor according to fight experts
  • McGregor’s “bus-crashing” incident makes the star look unhinged

Inside the bet

Anyone who likes a bet can see what’s happeing with this line from a mile away. Those who really, really know and understand MMA are the ones setting the line in favor of Nurmagomedov. They perceive him as the better and more prepared fighter.

McGregor is a name that resonates with so many people outside the inner-circles of MMA, you’re going to see a lot of uninformed money landing on the name they know instead of the name they have trouble pronouncing. Inherently, this means that McGregor will be a much shorter price than he should be – especially as the fight draws closer. 

Not to oversimplify a betting line, but consider this: If Nurmagomedov is favored despite the crush of uninformed money sure to rain down on the side of McGregor, how sure are the sharps that Nurmagomedov is the winner? Pretty darn sure to say the least. 

Waiting may be the key

In this situation, waiting for the day of the fight may be the best approach if you plan on taking Nurmagomedov. He might not have the name, but he’s certainly got the game. Let the rubes play McGregor and toss their money in the garbage can while Nurmagomedov’s odds tilt sharply in your favor. 

My Pick

As if it’s not already painfully obvious, I’ll be playing Khabib Nurmagomedov in this fight and not just because I keenly dislike McGregor. Opportunities where one side is sure to be overbet based on nothing more than popularity and presumption only happen a few times a year. It’s the same phenomenon that happens in the NFL futures market with the New England Patriots. Always bet the other side. It’s not that McGregor can’t win this fight; it’s that he’s unlikely to win and represents nothing close to fair wagering value. 

Category : Sports Betting News

Leave a comment
More articles...
Sports Betting News - 16/10/18
2018/19 NHL Outrights 
For many, the beginning of October can only mean that the NHL season is near. Oct. 3 signifies the start of the league's 102nd year of existence as 31 teams embark on an 82-game regular season that will conclude April 6. For bettors everywhere, the real question is how these next six months will play out. Here's a look at teams I like in the division, conference and Stanley Cup race.
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 03/10/18
2018 Baseball Playoffs 
The 2018 Major League Baseball Playoffs began in earnest Oct.2 with a thrilling Wild Card elimination game between the Cubs and Rockies. The game was epic, the atmosphere electric, and it was just a microcosm of what's in store over the next few weeks. Nothing beats playoff baseball atmosphere or excitement - and this is particularly true when you've got a few dollars riding on the action. Let's dig into the beast that is Playoff Baseball 2018 and uncover some winners!
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 25/09/18
Outrights to win the 2018/19 NBA Title 
It seems a little hard to believe, but another NBA season is fast-approaching. The first games will tip Oct. 16, so it's time to start thinking about those future bets and whether any team in the league can unseat the heavily-favored Golden State Warriors.
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 18/09/18
Best Picks for NFL’s Week #3 
It's hard to believe that two NFL weeks are already in the books, but that's where we are. Time to focus on these Week 3 lines and find our best plays. As usual, I'll dig into the top games according to wagering value. Here we go.
Read this article