Super Bowl 53 Betting Guide: Patriots vs. Rams
No single game generates as much betting action annually than the Super Bowl. Whether it’s on the actual game itself or ridiculous prop bets around it, the Super Bowl is a must-wager-on event — and we’re here to prime you on it. For starters, here are answers to some of the most-asked questions:
- When is it: February 3, 2019
- What time does Super Bowl start? Kickoff is slotted for 6:30 pm EST
- Where can I watch it? CBS (with great in-game analysis from Tony Romo) will air the Super Bowl live
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s move on to the betting odds. Bovada has the spread set at three points in favor of the Rams, who is also getting -130 odds to become the Super Bowl winners. The Patriots are underdogs for only the second time under Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (more on the first occasion later), but very slight ones at +110 moneyline. The over/under is pegged at 58 total points.
A Familiar Narrative
Stop us if you’ve heard this story before: behind a high-flying offensive attack that took the league by storm, the Rams enter the Super Bowl as favorites over an overlooked Patriots team. No, that’s not deja vu, it’s actually eerily reminiscent of the 2002 title game — with some notable caveats, of course.
That Super Bowl 17 years ago was actually what launched the Patriots dynasty, you know, the one that was thought to be dead at different points this season. With an NFL-record ninth Super Bowl appearance, the Brady-Belichick duo is far from history.
Though, this New England team isn’t nearly as overlooked as the 2002 one, which were 14 point underdogs. Brady also isn’t the young buck like he was back then at 24 years old. Instead, that distinction belongs to Jared Goff.
Behind Goff and head coach Sean McVay‘s playcalling, Los Angeles is putting 32.9 points per games. That’s marginally better than the “Greatest Show On Turf” team that averaged 31.4. Obviously, rules have changed greatly since then, but this explosive offense remains the Rams’ lynchpin.
Defense Wins Championships?
New England in the Super Bowl under Brady and Belichick is an even 4-4 on over/unders, though, the past three have all been overs. Know that, plus the season-long trend of increased scoring, this one has to be an over too, right? We’re not convinced.
Two of those Super Bowl unders that the Patriots have played before came against the Giants. In those two outright losses, New York created the book on how to get to Brady — with a forceful front line.
No player in all of the NFL is a bigger nightmare for opposing quarterbacks than Aaron Donald of LA. He led the league with 20.5 sacks this year. Pair him with Ndamukong Suh and Los Angeles has a pair of game wreckers on its defensive line. A proven defensive coordinator like Wade Phillips — not far removed from a different Super Bowl victory of his own three years ago — has to be licking his chops.
However, the same goes for a defensive mastermind like Belichick. No coach can scheme up a gameplan to take away an opponent’s best offensive threat better than Belichick. In this game, that X-factor is Todd Gurley. The Rams’ play-action attack thrives off Gurley’s exceptional running and catching abilities.
Even more troubling than Belichick’s defensive prowess, though, is that there are serious concerns over Gurley’s health. He’s battled a knee injury for over a month now, keeping him under 50 yards rushing three of his last four appearances. Healthy or not, we like the under here all things considered.
Pick: Under 58 points
Making The Pick
The common denominator in three LA losses this season was Goff turnovers. He threw six of his 12 interceptions this year in those defeats. Simply put, the game will be won and lost based on Goff protecting the football.
We’re going to say he takes care of it. Goff made one big throw after another in the NFC Championship game against a better defense and inside a more hostile environment. This kid is for real and Super Bowl 53 will be a torch-passing moment.
Pick: Los Angeles (-3)
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