Outrights to win the 2018/19 NBA Title
The Warriors have played for the NBA championship each of the last four seasons, winning three titles in what can only be described as a modern dynasty. History has proven that all dynasties eventually come to an end, but 2018-19 doesn’t seem to be the year anyone is predicting Golden State’s demise. In fact, the Warriors are listed at -195 in the Bovada sportsbook to win the NBA championship with the Boston Celtics a very distant second at +500.
Here are the top 5 betting choices to win the NBA title in 2018:
- Golden State Warriors -195
- Boston Celtics +500
- Houston Rockets +850
- Los Angeles Lakers +1000
- Toronto Raptors +1400
Examining the odds
To put things bluntly, if you know your NBA basketball and truly think that the Golden State Warriors are a lock to win the championship again in 2019, then it’s not worth making a future bet at such unappealing odds and having to wait until June to cash it. Not worth it at all. Betting on the NBA finals requires a longterm investor’s outlook, patience, and a willingness to find value at all costs.
Therefore, let’s not bother discussing the prohibitive favorites. Instead, let’s spend our time discussing which team might actually have a shot to beat them and help us cash a worthwhile ticket.
The NBA is an interesting animal in that one or two players can quickly change a team’s fortune. Case in point, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the team that has played the Warriors each of the last four seaons in the NBA finals. The Cavs were able to win in 2016 and would once-again be among the top betting choices, but the departure of Lebron James makes a monumental difference. Just how big you ask? Cleveland is listed as a no-hope +45000.
The Lebron factor
So Lebron James’s decision to take his talents to the west coast and join the Los Angeles Lakers is so profound, the Lakers are the fourth-favorite to win the NBA championship at +1000 a season after finishing 35-47. King James is still that good and many bettors looking for an alternative to the Golden State Warriors will simply bet Lebron. I think this is as unimaginative as it is wrong.
Personally, I see plenty of hurdles standing in the Lakers way this year despite the fact they have the best player in the league. But the Lebron factor is massive and thus, the Lakers will be overvalued and overbet. I’m passing in search of a better place for my money.
Find the value; make the pick
Boston seems like the logical play to me at +500. If anyone has a viable shot to unseat Golden State, it’s these guys. They are deep, talented, young and well-coached. I’m not getting huge value here, but I’m getting enough to make it worth a good futures bet.
Getting down to brass tacks, the NBA has become a league without much parity. There’s a valid argument to be made that only the Warriors, Lakers, and Celtics have enough talent on their rosters to legitimately contend for a title. As I’ve pointed out, I’ll avoid the Lakers because I believe they are simply being overbet on the merit of one superstar player.
TAKE Boston to win the NBA championship at+500
For a parting thought, those who bet the 2019 NBA champion should think about the length of an NBA season. It starts in mid-October and ends in June. This means two things: be ready to leave that cash in the window for a longterm investment and be sure you are getting justly rewarded in the event your money finds the winning team.
If Golden State is to be beaten this year, it’s going to take some luck on the part of your team and likely some bad luck going against the Warriors. Remembering that it’s a long season and that injuries can plague any team at any time, be sure to look for a roster full of talent and depth.
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