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The Sat, Nov.17 card at Churchill is a good one. There may not be a full card of graded stakes racing – in fact, there is just the Grade 3 River City Handicap – but the surrounding races are solid and full of opportunity. What else can you ask for as a horse player?
I’ll take a stab at the late pick 5 that begins in race 7 (4:06 ET post) with an 11-horse maiden special weight event at 1 1/16-miles. Here is the sequence in brief:
- Race 7/Maiden Special Weight 2 year-olds/1 1/16 miles
- Race 8/50,000 Claiming/1-mile
- Race 9/$100,000 O/C/1 1/16 miles
- Race 10/Grade 3 River City/1 1/8 miles (turf)
- Race 11: Maiden Special Weight/2 year-olds/7 furlongs
Bottom line picks
Race 7 is a race restricted to two year-olds and it looks fairly pedestrian in terms of speed figures. Sharp Prospect (5/2) and Harvey Wallbanger (8/5) look much faster than any of their rivals. I can’t blame players who go two-deep here in the Pick 5, but I’ll try to spice things up from the onset by adding Parade Field (20/1), who switches from turf to dirt and rallied in his debut on Oct.28 at Churchill.
- Let’s go with numbers 2,4,8 in the first leg of the Pick 5.
Race 8 is a mishmash of reasonably talented, but underperforming claimers going a one-turn mile on the main track. Go Navy Go switches from turf to dirt and looks to be training well. He gets my check mark at 8/1, but I’ll spread for purposes of keeping my ticket alive in this race.
- I’m using numbers 4,5,6 and 7 in race 8.
Race 9 is the kind of event I like to sink my handicapping teeth into. This is a nice bunch of three-year old fillies running in a non-winners of two condition, and I think there are some horses to lean on here. My top two choices would be #8 Mylady Curlin (3/1) and #6, Go Google Yourself (4/1), but I’ll also throw in #3 Dessert Honeys (5/1) and #4 Tap Gun (4/1). Speaking of guns: if I had one to my head here, I’d play Mylady Curlin because of her early lick in a race otherwise lacking speed.
- In the 9th, give me numbers 3,4,6 and 8.
The featured race 10 is the River City Handicap and while there are a number of different directions to go here, I’ll side with an improving Postulation (5/1), and value-based Team Colors (12/1). The former has bean beaten by Hello Don Julio in his last two – each time being well over 3 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Yes, those were state-bred races, but this guy can run and the figures back it up. Team Colors is doing well right now and there’s no way he should go off at this inflated price.
- Mark it 2, 6 for me in the feature.
In the eleventh and final race of the day, I’ll take a no-nonsense approach at the potential money leg of the pick 5. This may be the trickiest dance of the sequence, but I like a Dale Romans first-time starter by the name of Pow. Not only is that a sweet name, but Pow is 12/1 and Dale wins with these types of horses all the time – mostly to my detriment. What we have here is a well-bred firster with sneaky-good works. He’s not facing any killers and should easily handle the 7 furlong trip. It would be a cold-blooded single to stand alone with the firster, but I just can’t do it. I’ll add another talented firster in Equivocal (12/1) who will break from the rail with promising works.
- I’ll finish the pick 5 sequence with numbers 1 and 7.
Recapping the bet
[cta-betting-pick bet=”Go Navy Go” match=”Race 8 Saturday at Churchill Downs” odds=”8/1 ML” cta=”Bet Now!” id_partner=”216″]
If you’re scoring and playing at home, my pick 5 this Saturday at Churchill looks like this:
- Race 7: 2,4,8
- Race 8: 4,5,6,7
- Race 9: 3,4,6,8
- Race 10: 2,6
- Race 11: 1,7
TOTAL COST = $96 on a 50-cent base wager
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