2018 Breeder’s Cup
The games begin in earnest Friday, Nov. 2 at Louisville’s famed Churchill Downs with first post scheduled for 11:25 AM EST and continuing Saturday, Nov.3 at 10:10 AM EST. In total, there will be 14 Breeders’ Cup races and an assortment of high-quality undercard races to choose from. As usual, the Friday card is highlighted by the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Saturday feature will be the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
In this high-level overview of the two-day betting bonanza that is Breeders’ Cup, I’ll highlight some key preparation points for bettors to remember:
- Pick your spots; it’s a long weekend with several great wagering opportunities
- Get involved in the exactas – they always pay better than usual in these fattened pools
- Pick a good sequence to play the Pick 6 or Pick 4. There’s a chance to win life-changing money.
- Look for horses who have thrived at Churchill Downs in previous races
- Emphasize European horses in turf events
- Manage your bankroll wisely
- Check your online racebook for odds and updates
Best betting races of the weekend
In very general terms, there are a few scenarios that typically create wagering value in a horse race. We need field size and field quality, but we also need a situation where the wagering favorite is overbet and highly beatable.
In Breeders’ Cup races, field size and quality are a given. As is the case in most years, 2018’s slate of Breeders’ Cup races offer a handful of opportunities that satisfy the overbet / beatable favorite criteria. The BC Turf, the BC Dirt Mile, and the BC Distaff all present wagering events where the post time favorite is likely to go off at extremely unappealing odds. In brief, Enable (-175 in BC Turf), Monomoy Girl (+150 in BC Distaff), and Catalina Cruiser (+150 in BC Dirt Mile), are the horses I’ll look to beat.
Best longshot or value-based picks of the weekend
Overbet horses mean there has to be value somewhere else in the field. I’ll start by continuing with the framework from above in the Turf, Distaff and Dirt Mile. In the turf, I’ll take Waldgeist (+600) to get the job done. He was doing some nice work overseas before finishing a respectable fourth in the Arc.
In the Distaff, Blue Prize is available in the future’s market at a robust +1600. This horse is peaking with back-to-back graded stakes wins, and has already proven her affinity for the Churchill Downs dirt. Beating Monomoy Girl may not be an easy feat, but I think this runner has the right combination of tools to spring the upset. I’ve looked over the horses Monomoy Girl has beaten to date, and none are in this mare’s league.
That leaves the Dirt Mile, where the unbeaten Catalina Cruiser is burning money at a ridiculous +150 clip. There are a lot of unknowns about this horse, and I think City of Light (+650) is at least his equal. In simple terms, let there be light!
Other wagering opportunities of note
There are several excellent betting races where there’s just too much parity for the betting public to zero in on the top few challengers. Of course, this presents a golden opportunity if you happen to be a handicapper with a strong opinion in one of these wide-open races.
I’ve identified the Flly & Mare Turf, Turf Sprint, and Juvenile Turf as events where the favorites will be lukewarm and virtually every runner in the field offers appealing betting value. It will be hard to find better wagering value on a more qualified horse than Rushing Fall (+1000) in the BC Filly and Mare Turf.
Rushing Fall, winner of the BC Juvenile Turf Fillies a year ago, has just one career loss on her record and seems to get better with each start. Her last-out stakes score in the QEII at Keeneland was a thing of beauty and this horse has the look of a very serious contender who will assuredly be in the hunt turning for home.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Category : Sports Betting NewsMore articles...