Brandon A. Quick |  Sat 07/04/2018 - 09:56 EDT

2018 Bluegrass Stakes Predictions

2018 Bluegrass Stakes Predictions
The 94th running of the Bluegrass Stakes Sat. April, 7 at Keeneland (6:23 ET post) is the last chance for several hopefuls to secure enough Kentucky Derby qualifying points in perhaps the best betting prep race of 2018.

Big field, Big Credentials

This may not be the flashiest group of three year-old Derby contenders, but it is easily the deepest. With 14 horses signed on to run, the Bluegrass has a total of five graded stakes winners, including three grade 1 winners, a grade two winner and a grade 3 winner. 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Good Magic is the morning line favorite as he tries to make amends for his third-place finish in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes March 3 at Gulfstream. 

Meet the field

1-Zing Zang 30/1

2-Sporting Chance 10/1

3-California Night 30/1

4-Kanthaka 10/1

5-Quip 6/1 (Scratched)

6-Marconi 15/1

7-Blended Citizen 15/1

8-Gotta Go 30/1

9-Tiz Mischief 30/1

10-Free Drop Billy 5/1

11-Good Magic 2/1

12-Flameaway 6/1

13-Machismo 20/1

14-Arawak 30/1

15-(Also Eligible)Determinant 20/1 (*Will RUN as of 4/6*)

Sorting them out

With the scratch of Grade 2 winner Quip who will opt for the Arkansas Derby on April 14, the Bluegrass will still feature a 14-horse field. Early speed in the 1 1/8-mile event could be provided by a host of runners including Grade 1-winning sprinter Sporting Chance and longshot California Night – both of which will break from inside post positions. Machismo should be keen early from the outside. The remainder of the group consists of runners who prefer coming from just off, or well off the pace. Zing Zang, Marconi, Blended Citizen, Gotta Go, Tiz Mischief, Free Drop Billy, Arawak and Determinant all figure to be no closer than 4-6 lengths off the leaders after a half mile. 

West coast shipper Kanthaka and Good Magic both have enough early speed to track the front runners and both are proven commodities at the graded stakes level. Both also have questions to answer. Kanthaka possesses a sprinter’s pedigree, but should improve with making just his second start around two turns.

The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes February 10 at Santa Anita going 7 furlongs before making his two-turn debut against the star-studded pair of McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro in the Grade 2 San Felipe where he was a well-beaten third. The Bluegrass distance is a question, but I expect this colt to be involved in the running every step of the way. 

Good Magic ran an expectedly dull third in his seasonal debut, but he was likely not fully cranked for that race. His stellar workout March 31 at Palm Meadows (4 furlongs in 48 flat) suggests trainer Chad Brown has this guy ready to roll. If able to recapture the form he showed as a two year-old (100 Beyer Figure as a Juvenile) the rest of this field will be running for second. 

Flameway is another horse with a high-cruising speed. The Mark Casse trainee beat the well-regarded Catholic Boy in the Sam F. Davis Stakes before running second to Quip in the Tampa Derby. The post position (12) doesn’t do him any favors, so jockey Jose Lezcano will likely have to gun from the opening bell to avoid being wide into the first turn. This colt is in good form and certainly has a chance to do a lot of running here. 

Bluegrass Picks

With the Lexington weather forecast dicey for the April 7 Bluegrass, track conditions on race day will be paramount. Regardless of what the surface looks like when the gates open, this is a field defined by limitations. The only horse who has the look of a big-time Kentucky Derby contender is Good Magic, but he has plenty to prove after the uninspiring Fountain of Youth effort. I’m willing to give him a mulligan here as there is just not another horse in the field that captures my interest.  I’ll take Good Magic and top, singling in the Pick 4 and rooting for chaos underneath in the trifecta. 

Category : Sports Betting News

Tag : Horse Racing

Leave a comment
More articles...
Sports Betting News - 18/02/19
Major League Soccer Betting Guide for the 2019 Season 
The 2019 Major League Soccer (MLS) season is the 24th season of the exciting competition running from March 2nd through to November 10th when the 2019 MLS Cup takes place. Atlanta United FC are the reigning MLS Cup champions, having defeated Portland Timbers two-nil in 2018 and they are the second-favorites to win this year’s competition. New York Red Bulls are the favorites, but can they get the job done and win their first-ever MLS Cup?
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 13/02/19
Major League Baseball Future Bets 2019 
The 2019 Major League Baseball (MLB) season is going to be something special thanks to it being the 150th season in MLB history. The postseason is scheduled to start October 1st with the World Series schedule set to begin on October 22. Boston Red Sox won both the American League and were the 2018 World Series winners and are the +600 joint favorites to retain their World Series title this year. Can anyone stop Alex Cora’s Sox?
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 06/02/19
UFC 234 Predictions 
UFC 234 takes place at the Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia on Sunday 10th February and sees Robert Whittaker defend his UFC Middleweight Championship titles against Kelvin Gastelum in the pick of the bouts. The Main Card also sees Israel Adesanya take on Anderson Silva in the Middleweight class, Rani Yahya face off against Ricky Simon in the Bantamweight division, Jim Crute lock horns with Sam Alvey in the Light Heavyweight category and Montana De La Rosa fight Nadia Kassem in the Women’s Flyweight.
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 25/01/19
What are the available 2019 Super Bowl Prop Bets? 
It’s estimated that some 140 million people will watch Super Bowl 53 on television. Many people who don’t watch a football game all season long will tune in on Super Bowl Sunday. You don’t have to be a football fan to take in the Super Bowl, and thanks to the advent of Super Bowl Prop Bets, you don’t need to know football in order to wager on the Super Bowl.
Read this article