What is the Best Super Bowl Spread Pick for 2018?
Game Spread: New England -4.5 (-115)
Few surprises here that the Patriots are getting this kind of respect. They are a dynasty and they still have Tom Brady even if he’s now 40 years-old and the most senior QB to ever play in a Super Bowl. The Pats are also still coached by evil genius Bill Belichick who has repeatedly shown a knack for pressing all the right buttons in big games.
That said, the Pats are the public pick and the household name. In short, both of those things invariably indicate a team getting too much credit. The hunch bettor, the guy that plays one game a year and the office lady who likes the Pats because Brady is the only football player she knows will all land on the same team here. Meanwhile, the Eagles are a fitting foil. Philly was the underdog in each of its first two playoff games despite winning the NFC East and posting the best regular season record in the NFL at 13-3. The Eagles were also playing those games at home.
Clearly, the media and football fans at large failed to take Philly seriously after the season-ending injury to starting QB Carson Wentz. Admittedly, the Eagles are less formidable with Nick Foles taking snaps, but they’re still pretty damn good as evidenced by their 38-7 destruction of Minnesota two weeks ago in the playoffs.
I’ve been clear and confident in my prediction on this game. The Eagles defense provides the perfect counter to New England’s offense and I believe Philly is the more complete football team. I don’t think New England finds any success in this game running the football against one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses, so Brady dropping back to pass over and over and over again makes the Pats pretty one-dimensional. It also makes them beatable. Philly is the bet here. Enjoy the 4.5 points and the reduced juice available at most online sportsbooks (-105 as opposed to -110).
TAKE Philadelphia +4.5 (-105)
Other Spread Opportunities
For spread bettors looking for a non-conventional route, betitng the spread by halves or quarter is certainly another viable choice. Philly is +3 in the first half and +1/2 in the first quarter. In the interest of full disclosure, I don’t like either of these bets as much as I like Philly +4.5 for the game. I fully expect a back and forth battle in Super Bowl LII with neither team seizing command. I’ll wait to see if I’m right when the dust settles rather than shooting for the premature satisfaction of winning the first half or quarter.
Of course, I may change my tune about betting the second half or quarters 2-4 depending on how the action is going. As always, I’ll have my online sportsbooks pulled up on my laptop, ready to pounce on any in-game spreads that seem appealing. As a word to the wise, be sure you are keeping close tabs on the action if you plan on betting in-game spreads.
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