Brandon A. Quick |  Tue 09/01/2018 - 17:34 EST

NFL Spread: Titans at Patriots 2018 NFL Playoffs Odds

NFL Spread: Titans at Patriots 2018 NFL Playoffs Odds
Before last week's Wild Card upset win at Kansas City, pundits were calling Tennessee the worst team in the playoffs. Clearly they weren't, but now the stage is set for the Titans to take on the reigning Super Bowl champions (Sat, Jan.13 @8:15 PM ET) in a game where I see betting value.

The spread: New England -13.5 (O/U: 47)

Looking past the side and total in this matchup for a moment, the first thing that jumps out is the money line where New England is a staggering -1100 favorite. In laymen’s terms, that means you have to lay $1,100 bucks to make $100. Insane that such a mismatch exists in the second round of the NFL playoffs. 

Despite New England’s obvious advantages in this game, bettors may be cautious about laying 13.5 points even if the Patriots seem to be at least that much better than the Titans. In short, this game could be a betting hot potato for much of the wagering public. 

NFL » Playoff
Saturday 13 January
Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots

Titans @ Patriots

  Money Line  

By the numbers

Forgetting the Patriot mystique or that they’ve won 2 of the last 3 Super Bowls and trying to erase what naysayers have said about the Titans lately may be tough, so let’s wipe the slate clean and take a look at some basic stats. 

  • NE finished the regular season ranked 1st in total offense
  • Tenn finished the regular season ranked 13th in total defense
  • NE ranked 29th in total defense
  • Tenn ranked 23rd in total offense 
  • NE ranked second in passing offense
  • Tenn ranked 25th in passing defense 
  • NE ranked 30th in passing defense
  • Tenn ranked 23rd in passing offense

Certainly, team rankings don’t tell the entire story but they do provide a pretty solid background. New England should be able to do what they’ve done for 17 years with QB Tom Brady behind center. They’ll throw the football and there doesn’t appear to be too much Tennessee will be able to do to stop it. This isn’t cutting-edge analysis, but iit is a basic acknowledgment of what is likely to occur at Gillette Stadium.

Tennessee doesn’t look particularly well-suited to exploit any of New England’s weaknesses either. A good passing offense could signal problems for the Patriots, but the Titans are far from that.  The Titans have shown the ability to run the football at times with shifty QB Marcus Mariota and RB Derek Henry who had 156 yards rushing last week against Kansas City. If the Titans can run the ball effectively, they might stay in this game a little longer than most expect. 

Wagering considerations 

The Titans have scored 22 or 23 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They have an offensive unit that seems to be finding some consistency even if it lacks explosion. There doesn’t seem to be getting around the fact that New England is going to score points in this game, but I also see Tennessee scoring enough to make things interesting. New England’s combination of great offense/bad defense makes this a great opportunity to play the total. 

The Pick

The posted total is currently set at 47 and I like the chances of this one flying over that number. With a 100% chance of rain in Boston’s Saturday forecast, bettors might be tempted to lean towards the elements slowing this one down a bit, but let’s not forget that these guys are professionals who can throw, catch, run and kick in the rain. 

TAKE: OVER 47 Total points  Bovada

Category : Sporting News

Tag : Football , new england patriots , nfl , tennessee titans

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