Brandon A. Quick |  Sun 07/01/2018 - 16:49 EST

NFL Spread: Buffalo Bills at Jaguars 2018 NFL Wild Card Game Odds

NFL Spread: Buffalo Bills at Jaguars 2018 NFL Wild Card Game Odds
Buffalo and Jacksonville can both pound the rock, so this Wild Card matchup (Jan.7 @ 1:05 ET) has the feel of an old school battle of toughness. Find out why we'll be betting this one enthusiastically and why the numbers tell the story.

The line: Jacksonville -8 (O/U: 39.5)

The Jaguars (10-6) are an impressive football team on paper sporting the NFL’s second best defense and sixth best offense. They play an imposing, physical brand of football that is predicated on running the ball with toughness. They’ll also be playing at home where they’ve posted a 6-2 record this season. 

The Bills also like to run the football, but they have proven to be one of the NFL’s worst at stopping the run. Buffalo is 3-5 away from home and will have its work cut out for them in this game for sure. With the line just a point away from a key number and points likely to be at a premium, betting this contest has some tricky elements. 

NFL » Playoff
Sunday 07 January
Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Bills @ Jaguars

  Money Line  

By the numbers 

  • Jacksonville has the NFL’s best rushing attack at 141.4 ypg/Buffalo ranks sixth at 126.1 ypg
  • Jacksonville ranks 17th in passing/Buffalo ranks next-to-last in the league at 31st
  • Jacksonville ranks second in total defense/Buffalo ranks 26th
  • Jacksonsville ranks 21st in stopping the run/Buffalo ranks 29th
  • Jacksonville ranks 1st in stopping the pass/Buffalo ranks 20th

If we are willing to trust what the numbers are telling us here, Buffalo has one true strength – running the football. Jacksonville is surprisingly subpar at stopping the run given the quality of their overall defense, but let’s dig a little deeper. Jacksonville should have the ability to make Buffalo’s offense even more one-dimensional than it has been all year. When the 31st passing offense faces the best passing defense, it doesn’t take much analysis to project very few passing yards for the Bills. 

The skinny

Rarely do I bet a game entirely on statistical analyis, but Jacksonville should be able to run at will on Buffalo’s poor defense. Couple that with the late-season improvement from Jags QB Blake Bortles, and Jacksonville simply has more ways to score than will Buffalo. 

If the Jags are able to get an early lead while playing in front of their home fans, Buffalo is in trouble. Should the Jags get up by a couple of TD’s, Buffalo is in bigger trouble. Simply put, any scenario where the Bills have to throw the ball is a gargantuan advantage for Jacksonville. 

Betting considerations and pick

Normally I don’t like to lay this many points in NFL playoff games, but I’ll make a confident exception here. The Bills don’t impress me statistically or via the eye test. The only way I see the Bills keeping this one close is if they have success running the ball. Buffalo’s margin for error is razor-thin in this game and that’s never a good thing. 

TAKE Jacksonville -8 Bovada

Category : Sporting News

Tag : Bovada , buffalo bills , Football , jacksonville jaguars , nfl

Leave a comment
More articles...
Sporting News - 05/08/18
Cardinals Odds To Make The NFL Playoffs 2018-19 
New season, new coach, new quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals who are listed at +800 in the preseason to make the playoffs in 2019. Let's dive into the Cardinals prospects in 2018-19 to determine if there's any betting value in this proposition.
Read this article 
Sporting News - 06/04/18
2018 Ashland Stakes Predictions 
There are plenty of reasons for horse players to be infused with adrenaline with the Keeneland meet starting and the Kentucky Derby just a few weeks away. The 81st running of the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes Saturday, April 7 (5:45 ET post) adds another big target for those inclined to bet the ponies.
Read this article 
Sporting News - 31/03/18
Florida Derby 2018 Odds, Predictions 
The winner of the Florida Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby in 2016 and 2017. One of the 9 runners lined up for the Florida Derby Saturday March 31 (6:36 ET post) will hope recent history repeats itself.
Read this article 
Sporting News - 31/03/18
2018 Dubai World Cup Predictions 
There are few international events in horse racing like the $10 million Dubai World Cup and the 2018 renewal holds plenty of intrigue for bettors of all stripes as a star-studded field of 10 is set to go Saturday, March 31 at 12:50 ET.
Read this article