Brandon A. Quick | Fri 26/01/2018 - 10:46 EST

Finding Value in The NFL Pro Bowl

Finding Value in The NFL Pro Bowl

The Line: NFC -3 (O/U: 71)

Now that I've justified a little wager here, let's take a look at how to approach the 2018 Pro Bowl when the ball is "kicked" Sunday, Jan.28 at 3 PM ET. If you're wondering why the word kicked appears in ironic quotations, the Pro Bowl doesn't use actual kickoffs as a precaution to reduce risk of injury. So there's that.

If I'm being completely honest - and I always shoot straight when talking about gambling - there are very few, if any, valuable handicapping angles in an event like the Pro Bowl. So I won't bore you with season stats, roster information, or other data that has about as much practical application as the color of socks worn by the starting QBs.  

Wagering Logic

In lieu of a traditional handicapping discussion, let's frame this betting opportunity by focusing on our fellow gambler, Las Vegas and how Joe Public is likely to see this game. First, most people betting this one are doing so blindly - much like us.

That said, the average bettor is pretty predicatable. Most guys laying last-minute cash on this one are bored out of their skulls and will be operating under the assumption that Pro Bowls = points. Furthermore, they want to see points scored. I don't know anyone who roots for defense in the Pro Bowl.  Other guys will simply bet according to their loyalties. In essence, a Steelers fan is likely to take the AFC because hey, that's what conference the Steelers are in. 

What point am I attempting to make and how does any of this help us cash an action bet on the Pro Bowl? The truth - there's that word again - is that I have no idea who wins this one. Neither does Vegas, the indifferent players contesting the game, or the guys betting on it. Therefore, I won't give you a side. What I will do is give you a total.

The Pick

The over/under is a healthy, but not unreasonable 71. Since 2000, half the pro bowls have ended in final scores less than this number. If there are any Pro Bowl trends, it's that games have tended to be either astronomically high-scoring, or there has been very little offense to speak of.

Last year marked the renewal of the AFC-NFC matchup - the first one since 2012. The score was a paltry 20-13. If I'm hunting action, I'm going to bet some loose against Joe Public who will always like the over in exhibition games.

In closing, don't feel bad about betting this game. Win or lose, there's not much football left to watch in the 2017-18  season, so enjoy the action and root for a little luck. 

TAKE: UNDER 71

      Category : Sporting News


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