Brandon A. Quick | Fri 02/02/2018 - 11:30 EST

Super Bowl LII Best Totals Betting Lines Picks

Super Bowl LII Best Totals Betting Lines Picks

Game total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110)

To form an opinion about any total, a bettor has to be able to project the tempo and complexion of the game. Super Bowl LII presents a contrast in styles. The Eagles are built to run the football (3rd best in the NFL in rushing during the regular season) and stop the run (1st in NFL regular season). The Patriots are a prolific offensive team (1st in NFL total offense during regular season) and feature a dynamic passing attack (2nd best in NFL regular season). The Pats Achilles' heel is their defensive unit (27th in the NFL). 

The Eagles will game plan to keep Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots offensive weapons off the field. They'll do this by running the football and calling upon backup QB Nick Foles to manage the game with high percentage passes. The Patriots (ranked 20th in rush defense) don't seem particularly well-suited to counter this approach. 

If the Eagles offense has some degree of success against New England's defense, I like this game to go under the posted total of 48.5. The Patriots are clearly a danger to score points in bunches, but Philly is an elite defensive team that can play to its strength bys shutting down the run and rendering New England's attack one-dimensional. One might say I'm making a better case here to play Philly as the underdog - which I also intend to do - but I'm not convinced the Eagles score enough points to win this game making the under the stronger of the two plays. 


Betting totals by half and quarter

For the uninitiated, in-game betting requires a keen eye for what's happening on the field. Prior to the game, we know the first half and first quarter totals, but the second half and quarters 2-4 are posted live at the conclusion of each period, forcing the bettor to make quick decisions. This kind of action can be very rewarding for handicappers with the ability to clearly analyze the flow of the game and often punitive to passive watchers trying to make the same wager. But, before we discuss in-game totals, let's start with what we know.

  • 1st half total: Over/Under 24
  • 1st quarter total: Over/Under 9.5 

Football is a game where the second half can sometimes bear little resemblance to the first. But, if I'm right about the game going under 48.5, then I'm probably going to be even more right about the first half going under 24. The adrenaline and Super Bowl jitters are going to be more present at the beginning of the game, which arguably favors defensive football. For this reason, I might be more inclined to bet the first half total.

There's also the advantage of betting the 1st half total to dip a tow in the proverbial water, rather than being tied to a total for an entire game. Let's say, I play the first half total and it quickly becomes evident that everything I thought about this game is wrong and a scoring fest unfolds. I could adjust by playing the second half total or the quarterly totals as they are posted. Of course, a game that looks for all the world like it's going to be an over early in the contest can always slow down to a crawl in the second half, so such hesitation and second-guessing comes with its own peril. 

The first quarter wager at 9.5 is one I'm likely to stay away from. Just because I like the half and game unders, doesn't mean I have to also like this one. For starters, the 9.5 is obviously lower than the rest of the pace of the game of 12-12.5 points per quarter. A quick TD and an FG would beat me out of this wager even though such early scoring wouldn't be a total shocker and certainly wouldn't put me in a poor position to cash unders on the first half or game totals. 

In-game totals

Back to the conversation we alluded to earlier. If you're going to bet the second half or quarters 2-4, make sure to prioritize a few things. Here they are listed in order of importance:

  1. Watch the game closely and begin to anticipate the line well in advance of it being posted.
  2. Have your online sportsbooks open on your laptop or mobile device.
  3. Make sure you are getting a favorable line.

Betting in-game totals takes a little practice, so if you're a newbie and must try it during Super Bowl LII, tread lightly. Above all, enjoy all the totals action and do as much homework as possible before the kickoff.


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