Premier League Expert Picks
Best Premier League parlay for match day 1
After two and a half seemingly interminable summer months, the Premier League returns this weekend with the opening volley of the 2017/18 season. And we’ve got the three best bets to help get you through it.
Bovada is currently favoring Newcastle at -155 to Tottenham’s +125 when the two side’s clash on Sunday. Anything can happen, but that feels like giving the Toons far too much credit while simultaneously giving Spurs far too little.
In fairness, there is some logic behind Bovada’s lines. The last time the two sides met was the final day of the 2015/16 season. Newcastle, already relegated the week prior, were expected to lose heavily to a Tottenham side looking to finish above rivals Arsenal for the first time in nearly two decades.
Things did not quite go to plan however. Rafa Benitez organized a truly stunning defeat, routing Spurs 5-1.
Spurs will be anxious to avoid a repeat of that embarrassment, though their lack of business in the transfer window might suggest to some of the betting public that they lack the means to reliably do so. In a league defined as much by the deals made in the summer as results on the pitch, this reeks of a crippling lack of ambition.
Don’t believe it however. Tottenham are still the team that finished 2nd in 2016/17, and they can make a claim that for long stretches over the last year they were the class of English football. Expect them to easily dispatch a newly promoted Newcastle.
Southampton vs. Swansea
It’s less easy to explain away Bovada’s lines for Southampton v Swansea City. The visiting Swans are favored -135 to their host’s +110 — a line that hardly makes sense considering Swansea’s near-death experience last season.
It won’t help either if Everton finally force a move for Gylfi Sigurdsson this week. It is not hyperbole to say that Swansea would not be in the Premier League today were it not for the Iceland international’s efforts last season. Despite it being clear that they would lose him this summer, to date they haven’t made any moves to fill the considerable void he will leave behind.
Southampton’s own business this summer has been fairly minimal as well, but they ended last season in 8th place. The departure of Claude Puel this summer is an unwelcome disruption, but they are far and away the healthier team. The Saints should undo a Sigurdsson-less Swansea with ease.
West Brom vs. Bournemouth
Finally, we head to the West Midlands for West Bromwich Albion’s match against Bournemouth. Bovada is big on Tony Pulis’ chances, though any Baggies fan will tell you how ridiculous that sounds.
It is hard to make a case that West Brom are not worse off than they were last season. They finished 10th thanks to some rather lifeless — but hard to beat — football, and like any Pulis team it feels as if that is about as high as they will get.
There are few signs that anything is changing either. Losing Darren Fletcher to Stoke City this summer without properly replacing him is a big blow. Acquiring Jay Rodriguez seems like a coup — until you remember that the oft-injured 28-year-old has only started 12 Premier League matches since 2014.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, can make a case for quietly having one of the best transfer windows in England. They upgraded a defense that leaked goals last season and held on to many of the players that make Eddie Howe’s system work so well. They will be looking to get the new season started off right, and will have the wind at their backs against a rickety West Brom.
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